Rokan's Journal

Bangladesh became independent through a bloody liberation war in 1971.Though apparently India has been trying to play the role of a friend but truly she was never a friend of Bangladesh. She helped Bangladesh during liberation war with some definite agenda, which is now very clear to most of the Bangladeshi people. Even after independence of Bangladesh this truth has been established during different situations and crises. India always used Bangladesh for her own interests. India and her people actually don’t like the prosperity and development of Bangladesh and her people. She is always jealous and vindictive.

India thinks that Bangladesh as a small developing neighboring state will always be their obedient and treat her as master, but reality is that most of the Bangladeshi people except a small number of Indian psycho fans and paid agents/ political parties don’t want to see India as master but a friend.

Recently Bangladesh has signed several agreements in different fields with China, due to which India started feeling very uncomfortable. India has increased her diplomatic activities to convince Bangladesh and divert from China.

People in India have failed to appreciate just how important Bangladesh is to their well-being. There are at least several reasons related to peace and development that make Bangladesh vital for India.

The first reason is that the security of the northeastern states, of eastern India, and of India more widely is affected by all activities of Bangladesh. If Dhaka does not cooperate with New Delhi, it will be hard to handle the various insurgent groups that might operate in that region and find refuge in Bangladesh. If, in addition, India cannot get access to the northeast through Bangladesh , even if it is only  economic access — it will be very difficult for India to integrate those states with the heartland. And if Bangladesh does not remain a stable, open and tolerant country, people in India will have great difficulty in stopping different extremists from spilling to their cities and towns.

The second reason, India needs to pay relations with Bangladesh much greater attention since she shares rivers with Bangladesh. India and Bangladesh share over 40 rivers, and these rivers are vital for the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people in both countries. Bangladesh being the lower riparian state is in a weaker position on the use of these rivers. India knows  that though Bangladesh is the lower riparian in relation to Bhutan, Nepal and China: if she fails to be sensible and fair over river-water sharing with Bangladesh, She could well find hers in an equally hopeless downriver position someday, especially with China.

If Bangladesh does not get enough water or if it gets too much when the rivers are full, she will face catastrophe. Catastrophe in Bangladesh means instability in India`s northeast, West Bengal, and states further away. Inevitably, severe dislocations in Bangladesh mean refugee and migrant flows into India. Though Bangladeshis are visiting to India anyway for various reasons, but that situation will be different one and this will lead to tremendous unease in the neighbouring states. Hydrologically-induced catastrophes would enlarge the problem massively.

There is another long-term catastrophe looming for both countries, and this is the third big reason to stay tuned to Bangladesh. India and Bangladesh are amongst the 12 countries that will be most severely affected by climate change. Bangladesh could lose up to 20% of its land as sea levels rise due to climate change. The ensuing turmoil in Bangladesh will inevitably be felt in neighbouring and distant parts of India. The two countries must therefore think about how to cooperate on conservation, alternative energy, and many other related aspects of environmental defence.

The road access to the eastern countries like Myanmar has to be through Bangladesh. From the economic point of view, Bangladesh has to remain stable for India to grow. The economy of our east neighbor has been growing at more than 5%, so it can play a crucial part as a market for Indian products.

Finally, Bangladesh is crucial for India because it represents opportunities and lessons worth learning. In a globalizing world where trade counts for so much, Bangladesh is one of India’s biggest trading partners. Given that it has been growing at over 5% per annum for the past decade and looks set to continue to grow, it is an economic asset. India might buy natural gas from, and she could sell hydropower to us. Bangladesh is also an exemplar. It’s rapidly rising literacy rates (especially amongst women), its steady reduction in birth rates (from a much higher starting point than India), and the tremendous advances it has made in basic health (including safe birthing and maternal care); all these put India to shame. If Indians were not so arrogant, they could learn something from their closest great neighbour to the east.

In the recent past, China has its eye on Bangladesh and is investing a lot of money in it. As a result, a strong economic and military partnership is being developed between them. China is wooing Bangladesh at the cost of India. India will try to keep Bangladesh happy and under her influence.

It has been observed that the Indian foreign policy establishment working on the India-Bangladesh relationship with the importance it deserves. Bangladesh has emerged as a country that cannot be ignored by anyone due to different reasons. China, Japan, the US, the UK and the European Union (EU) have been planning their strategic diplomacy in Dhaka all along, and this seems to have intensified in recent years. Dhaka’s relationship with Islamabad though cooled down initially under the Awami League (Al) government led by Sheikh Hasina but that has also been refreshed with the initiative of Prime mister Imran Khan of Pakistan recently. Bangladesh is beginning to emerge as the center form where connectivity could spread both towards the west (India, Nepal, and Bhutan) and to East (Land route through Myanmar ending in Vietnam’s Ports).

Five Indian states have common borders with Bangladesh, something which can be made into a win-win situation through connectivity and trade. Of course, there will be opposition from different interest groups for different reasons. These must be overcome in due course but two major ones need immediate attention.

First is the Teesta River water treaty. Everything has been done. At the last moment West Bengal Chief Minister Ms. Mamta Bannerjee refused to support the treaty on flimsy grounds, leading to a loss of face for the Indian government, and political setback for Sheikh Hasina and her government. Ms. Bannerjee does not understand the harm she did to Indian interests and the stability of Bangladesh.

The other is the land border agreement (LBA) of 1974 signed by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sk. Mujibur Rahman. Where Bangladesh has even ratified the treaty, India is yet to move the bill through Parliament. The BJP opposed the move on the grounds that certain amount of land related to adversely possessed enclaves cannot be given away.It must be understood by New Delhi that no border/territorial agreement can even be achieved without give and take. A look at land border agreements between different countries will show to achieve an amicable settlement there must be understanding, concessions and the right spirit between the two sides. India has been long at talks with China on the border demarcation issue. This single problem leads at times to attendant problems and reflects on the overall relationship. The Indian political leaders must answer whether they would like to remain in perpetual animosity with Bangladesh (and china).

Some think these issues must be taken into consideration when prosecuting relation with Bangladesh. India suffered its worst relations with Bangladesh in previous years before current Awami Government came to power.

While 49 years have passed, the issue of Bangladesh’s liberation is yet to be fully settled. The ghost of the liberation war is still chasing a class of the population and pulling the country backwards from its progress and March forward. Sheikh Hasina, after being elected in December 2009 as Prime Minister, used her huge majority in Parliament to launch two initiatives. One was eradication of terrorism from the country, and the other was the trial of the 1971 war criminals for crime against humanity. About which they say it has been done successfully.

On the terrorism front Sheikh Hasina demands unprecedented success. Indian insurgents like the ULFA, NSCN (I/M) and others have been rooted out of this country, and terrorists and extremists have been hit hard. Apart from Bangladesh, India has been the greatest beneficiary of the Sheikh Hasina government’s action against terrorism.At the same time it cannot be said that terrorism has been completely rooted out. It is an extremely difficult task because the terrorist and extremists are locally grown with no ideology in Bangladesh. Unfortunately, leading countries like the USA and UK also continue to play a detrimental role in Bangladesh.

In the last three years or so relation between the Sheikh Hasina government and the West (US and UK mainly) have cooked. The left of centre ideology of the Awami League and its allies are viewed ideologically at variance with that of the west. Efforts have been made at regime change in Dhaka. The trial of war criminals was faulted by the West on legalistic and moralistic grounds. True, the January 5, 2014 general elections were boycotted by the opposition resulting in almost a walkover for the Awami League. But this could have been avoided if the opposition leader and BNP chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia did not take an uncompromising stand. Pressure continues from the West for a re-election but many countries including china, Russia and japan have recognized the present government and are doing business with it.

The USA’s Asia ‘PIVOT’ has elements of Bangladesh in its calculation. Like in Myanmar the USA is trying to quietly push its influence in Bangladesh to stem the expansion of Chinese influence westward especially in the Indian Ocean. Russia is quietly nurturing its influence in Bangladesh and getting the contrast for building the 1000 MW nuclear power plant in Ruppur, Bangladesh, is an understated but significant achievement for Moscow.

Sheikh Hasina made two important visits to Japan (May 2014) and China (June 2014) to diplomatically seal relations between her government and that of Japan and China, who have not pressured her for a re-election. It was clear that Bangladesh did not figure in the recent China – Japan conflict     over Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea.

Japan pledged US $ 6 billion assistance over the next five years, and China got further contracts in Bangladesh infrastructure.

In strategic dimensions Japan would be seen as support to the US in Bangladesh, while China is consistently working on its strategic hub in Bangladesh to project power in the Indian Ocean region and more recently talked about a maritime silk route.

China appears to be getting impatient over the delay in the Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCRM) road from Kunming (China) to Chittagong port city (Bangladesh). It is also keenly interested in participating, even in a consortium if need be, in the construction of the deep sea port in Sonadia Island in the Bay of Bengal, near Chittagong.

Pakistan is no longer a major power in Bangladesh, but will become one if and when the opposition returns. It is unlikely, however, that Pakistan would be in a kind of position it was in during the BNP- Jamaat rule of 2001 to 2006.What can be seen is that Bangladesh is becoming a country of global strategic interest and importance. When India finds that Bangladesh is shifting her friendship towards China, India suddenly has become active to remove barriers and establish a strategic development and security partnership with Dhaka.

It is understood that in the recent past Indian diplomats, officers and political leaders have become very concerned about Bangladesh. I feel that the times are changing. A country can have a strategic relationship with another. Today India’s dispute with Pakistan is in extremes. In 1971, Bangladesh was formed after it fought its Liberation War against the Pakistan army. But that’s something from 1971. This is 2020 and everything has changed. India is Pakistan’s enemy but independent Bangladesh is democratic. Why should it carry this baggage from history? China, Afghanistan, Iran — all want to maintain good relations with Dhaka. Everyone understands the geo-strategic importance of this small South Asian country. It isn’t absurd for China-Pakistan-Russia to try to have good relations with Bangladesh. For India to do this, it needs to have proactive diplomacy. For this reason, the Prime Minister Modi was sending different diplomats to Dhaka as the High Commissioner to improve the relations.

People of Bangladesh are appalled by Hasina government’s repulsive decision to observe a day of ‘state mourning’ in Bangladesh on September 2 over the death of Pranab Mukherjee, former President of India. Expressing her deepest grief, Sheikh Hasina termed him a ‘true friend’ of Bangladesh. Also, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) expressed deep condolence with shameless lie that the people of Bangladesh are equally empathic about his death as the people of India! In truth, people of Bangladesh never considered him as a true friend. They rather remember him as that Foreign Minister under whose tenure India orchestrated the atrocious massacre at Pilkhana in 2009 and martyred our brave 57 army officers. Our people are not empathic for Pranab as they know that the BSF jawan, killer of our sister Felani Khatun, was acquitted in 2015 under his Presidency. Not to mention that there were hundreds of cases of killing, injury and abduction of our people by the BSF thugs during his last term as President. These abhorrent statements by our rulers and secular politicians clearly prove that they never represent our people and their emotion. They are mere agents of the US/UK colonialists and thus are submissive towards their regional bully India. These lackeys are becoming more desperate to serve the interests of these enemies of the state with each passing day. And this time Hasina did not even hesitate to lie about our people to justify her subservience towards India – the foremost enemy of the Muslims and Bangladesh.    

So, India needs Bangladesh as a friend for India’s interests. But with the ‘look down’ attitude of Indians this cannot be improved and retained.