Rokan's Journal

In the turbulent political landscape of Bangladesh, the ousting of Sheikh Hasina, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, marks a significant moment in both domestic and regional politics. The fall of Hasina, amid allegations of widespread discontent, brutal crackdowns, and a generational push for change, has left Bangladesh in a period of transition and uncertainty, with profound implications for minority rights, regional dynamics, and the future of the country’s governance.

The Rise of the Student-Led Movement

The catalyst for the fall of Hasina was a student-led movement against the government’s controversial quota system. Dubbed the “Gen Z revolution” or the “Monsoon Revolution,” this uprising saw thousands of young Bangladeshis take to the streets, demanding fundamental change. This movement was not aligned with traditional political factions such as the Awami League or the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), but rather, it reflected a deep-seated frustration with the entrenched political order.

Among these students was Shaheed (an imaginary name), a 21-year-old architecture student in Dhaka, who avoided direct street protests after witnessing the brutal crackdown that claimed the lives of over 300 protesters. Instead, he and other students used their tech skills to bypass government censorship, spread their message internationally, and raise awareness of their cause.

The protestors’ primary demands focused on ending corruption and ensuring fair governance. However, their movement soon became embroiled in allegations of communal violence, particularly targeted against Bangladesh’s Hindu minority. This allegation, largely propagated by social media and Indian news outlets,

suggested that Hindus, who traditionally supported Hasina’s Awami League, were being targeted as political pawns in the unrest following her ouster.

Communal Tensions and the Role of Misinformation

Bangladesh is a Muslim-majority nation, with Hindus comprising around 8% of the 170 million population. Historically, this minority has faced discrimination and violence, especially during periods of political instability. Following Hasina’s ouster on August 5, reports of attacks on Hindu temples and businesses began circulating, causing alarm both domestically and internationally.

Shaheed, like many others in his movement, was dismayed by these allegations. “Targeting Bangladeshi Hindus was never the message nor the intent of the student movement,” he stated. Despite social media reports and sensationalist Indian media coverage, many students and civil society members worked tirelessly to verify the claims. Shaheed himself monitored Hindu residential areas in his Dhaka neighborhood, ensuring that the residents were safe and that the situation remained peaceful.

The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council reported at least 200 attacks on religious minorities in the week following Hasina’s removal. However, the exact scale and motivations behind these incidents remain unclear. Much of the chaos can be attributed to misinformation, with social media platforms inundated by old images, doctored videos, and unverified reports, many traced back to bots and trolls in neighboring India. This disinformation campaign has fueled communal tensions, further complicating the situation.

The Geopolitical Ramifications

Hasina’s fall has exposed deeper geopolitical rifts in South Asia, which the international community can no longer afford to ignore. For years, Hasina had been portrayed as the linchpin of a secular, moderate Bangladesh, a buffer against Islamist extremism. However, her increasingly autocratic rule and controversial election victories – widely condemned as neither free nor fair – alienated large segments of the population, particularly the youth.

Regionally, Hasina’s ouster has reshuffled diplomatic dynamics. India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has long supported Hasina and her government, viewing her as a crucial ally in maintaining stability in Bangladesh. The Indian government put considerable political capital into backing Hasina, often at the expense of engaging with broader Bangladeshi society. “India over-invested in Hasina and under-invested in Bangladesh,” explained by an Indian author.

This strategy now appears short-sighted, as New Delhi finds itself scrambling to adapt to the new reality in Bangladesh. Hasina’s ouster has left a vacuum that could be filled by a variety of actors, including Islamist factions, despite the banning of the Jamaat-e-Islami party in early August. Indian media outlets have expressed concern that Jamaat, historically aligned with the BNP, could play a more significant role in Bangladesh’s future, fueling anxiety about a possible Islamist resurgence. India always has a negative and imaginative attitude towards Jamaat and seems they don’t ever want them in power and politics which sounds really weird.

The Rise of Muhammad Yunus: A Hope for Stability?

In the aftermath of Hasina’s ouster, Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as chief adviser of the interim government, tasked with steering the country towards fresh elections. Yunus, a respected economist and social entrepreneur, has called for patience and national unity, particularly in addressing minority fears. His leadership brings a sense of hope to many Bangladeshis who are disillusioned with the current political establishment.

Yunus has emphasized the need for inclusivity and protection of minority rights in this transitional period. Meeting with Hindu community leaders, Yunus reassured them of his commitment to ensuring the safety and security of all citizens, irrespective of faith. His message resonated with many in Bangladesh, where students and civil society members have mobilized to protect temples and prevent communal violence. Shafqat Munir, a senior fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, noted that this revolution is for all Bangladeshis, emphasizing the importance of maintaining national unity.

The Path Forward: Navigating a New Political Reality

As Bangladesh navigates this uncertain post-Hasina era, the country faces immense challenges. The student-led revolution has disrupted the traditional political order, with many young Bangladeshis calling for a break from the Awami League-BNP political dichotomy that has dominated the nation for decades. However, regional and global powers are watching closely, wary of the potential for instability in this strategically important country.

For India, China, and the international community, Bangladesh’s political future is of vital importance. Stability in South Asia hinges on the outcome of this revolution, and how the country reconciles its internal divisions will shape the region’s geopolitical landscape for years to come. The international community must engage constructively with Bangladesh, supporting democratic processes while ensuring that minority rights and social cohesion remain a priority.

The ousting of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s long-serving prime minister, has unleashed a wave of uncertainty and change in the nation. While student-led protests catalyzed the regime’s fall, the aftermath of her departure is as much about geopolitics as it is about domestic unrest. Bangladesh now stands at a pivotal moment, juggling its internal challenges while also navigating complex foreign relations with its giant neighbor India and its regional competitor, China. 

The Rise and fall of Sheikh Hasina

Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, spanning over 15 years, was marked by a careful diplomatic balancing act. While she maintained close ties with India—rooted in the historic role India played in Bangladesh’s liberation—she also strengthened economic and defense cooperation with China. Hasina’s strategic finesse allowed Bangladesh to benefit from both giants. Her government’s engagement with China included high-profile infrastructure projects, such as the China-built submarine base in Cox’s Bazar, underscoring Bangladesh’s increasing strategic importance in the Bay of Bengal.

However, Hasina’s relationship with China hit a rough patch toward the end of her rule, particularly with Beijing’s reluctance to commit to the Teesta water

management project. Her shortened China visit and eventual preference for India’s involvement in the Teesta deal symbolized a tilt back toward New Delhi, perhaps driven by necessity rather than choice. While this dynamic strained her once-effective balancing act, it revealed the underlying complexity of managing Bangladesh’s foreign policy between two powerful rivals.

India’s Investment in Hasina: A Risky Gamble

India’s relationship with Hasina has been one of pragmatic cooperation, but it has also come under criticism. Critics argue that New Delhi over-invested in Hasina’s regime at the expense of cultivating ties with the broader Bangladeshi polity. This close alignment was particularly contentious as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) adopted increasingly anti-Muslim rhetoric.

While India and Bangladesh deepened defense and economic ties during Hasina’s tenure, the relationship came under strain from domestic opposition in Bangladesh. Modi’s controversial citizenship laws and the BJP’s anti-migrant stance fueled anti-Indian sentiment, as demonstrated by the “India Out” campaign. Despite growing public discontent, Hasina maintained a cooperative relationship with India, sidelining human rights concerns and democratic backsliding in both countries to keep bilateral ties intact.

The question now is how India will reposition itself in the post-Hasina era. With Hasina no longer in power, Indian policymakers face the delicate task of adjusting their diplomatic strategy to align with Bangladesh’s evolving political landscape. India must recalibrate its approach to ensure it is not perceived as having backed one regime to the exclusion of others. The future stability of Bangladesh—and by extension, South Asia—depends on New Delhi’s ability to foster constructive ties with Bangladesh’s interim government and its emerging leadership.

The Geopolitical Stakes: China’s Subtle Moves

China’s role in Bangladesh’s geopolitical theater has been less visible but no less significant. Hasina’s government welcomed Chinese investments, including critical

Infrastructure projects, as part of Beijing’s broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While India remains Bangladesh’s largest neighbor and a key partner, China’s growing footprint, particularly in defense, signals an important shift in the region’s balance of power.

Bangladesh’s post-Hasina transition may offer Beijing new opportunities to deepen ties with Dhaka, especially if the interim government seeks to diversify its foreign relations. China’s willingness to engage in large-scale projects without attaching the same human rights conditions that Western powers often insist upon makes it an attractive partner for many developing nations, including Bangladesh.

However, China’s position will depend on how well it can navigate the changing political currents in Bangladesh. Beijing’s reluctance to engage fully with Hasina’s government in its final days suggests a cautious approach. Going forward, China may aim to consolidate its influence by offering economic incentives and strategic cooperation to Bangladesh’s new leadership.

Minority Rights and Diplomatic Double Standards

A core issue in Bangladesh-India relations has always been the treatment of minorities, particularly Hindus. India, under Modi, has long voiced concerns about the treatment of Hindus in neighboring countries, including Bangladesh. Yet, critics point out the inconsistency in India’s foreign policy, given its own record on minority rights under the BJP. An Indian political analyst observes, the Modi administration’s push for a Hindu nationalist agenda undermines India’s historical commitment to protecting minority rights in the region.

For Bangladesh, addressing minority rights will be crucial in securing international legitimacy during this transitional period. Attacks on Hindus following Hasina’s ouster, although largely unsubstantiated, have raised alarm both domestically and internationally. Civil society efforts to protect minority communities during the protests underscore the nation’s aspiration for a pluralistic society, but the path to achieving this remains fraught with challenges.

Conclusion: Bangladesh’s Crossroads and the Road Ahead

Bangladesh’s “Monsoon Revolution” offers both a challenge and an opportunity. The young generation, driven by a desire for fundamental change, has shown that they are unwilling to accept the status quo. Now, it is up to the interim government, civil society, and the international community to ensure that this revolution leads to a more just, equitable, and democratic Bangladesh.

Bangladesh’s post-Hasina era represents both a crisis and an opportunity. Domestically, the country faces the daunting task of navigating political instability, restoring democratic governance, and ensuring the protection of minority rights. Internationally, Bangladesh’s leadership will have to skillfully balance its relationships with India, China, and other global powers to maintain its strategic autonomy.

For India, recalibrating its Bangladesh policy will be essential to maintaining regional stability. While New Delhi has long enjoyed strong ties with Dhaka, it must now adapt to a new political reality where student-led movements and civil society are shaping the country’s future. Likewise, China’s subtle but strategic moves in Bangladesh signal a more complex geopolitical landscape, where Dhaka will seek to leverage its position between two regional giants.

In the end, Bangladesh’s revolution, which some have dubbed the “Monsoon Revolution,” offers a glimmer of hope for a more democratic and inclusive future. As the country enters this critical period, the optimism of its youth, like Shaheed   and other student protesters, will be key in shaping a new Bangladesh—one that values democracy, pluralism, and peaceful coexistence both at home and abroad.