Rokan's Journal

Since the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971, the country’s closest neighbor, India, has exhibited a complex relationship marked by both cooperation and contention. While India’s role as an ally during the final phase of the Liberation War is well-documented, its actions since then have raised questions about its long-term intentions and strategies towards Bangladesh. This article delves into India’s hegemonic policies, its attempts to destabilize Bangladesh, and what the future may hold for this bilateral relationship. It also explores strategies that Bangladesh should adopt to safeguard its sovereignty and national interests.

India’s involvement in Bangladesh’s liberation was shaped by its geopolitical interests. By aiding the Bengali freedom fighters, India weakened its adversary, Pakistan, while gaining a strategic foothold in South Asia. However, this initial support was accompanied by a subtle strategy to exert influence over the newly independent nation. Over the decades, this influence has manifested in various forms, from economic leverage and political interference to covert operations aimed at destabilizing Bangladesh.

Historical Context: A Dual-Faced Ally

India’s intervention in the 1971 Liberation War came at a critical juncture, but it was not devoid of ulterior motives. Joining the conflict merely 10 days before Bangladesh’s independence on December 16, 1971, India’s primary aim appeared to be the weakening of Pakistan rather than altruistic support for the Bengali freedom fighters. This calculated move, while aiding Bangladesh’s independence, laid the groundwork for India’s future attempts to influence its neighbor’s political and economic landscape.

Early Post-Independence Interference

Following the liberation, India swiftly moved to establish itself as a key player in Bangladesh’s governance and economy. From trade agreements favoring Indian interests to diplomatic maneuvers, India’s approach seemed less about partnership and more about creating a dependency. This pattern of interference sowed the seeds of mistrust among Bangladeshis, who had hoped for a more equitable relationship with their neighbor.

One of the earliest signs of India’s overreach was its push for trade agreements that disproportionately benefited Indian industries while limiting Bangladesh’s economic growth. These agreements often gave Indian products easier access to Bangladeshi markets, creating a trade imbalance that persists to this day. Additionally, Indian companies were quick to invest in key sectors of Bangladesh’s economy, often overshadowing local enterprises and creating a dependency on Indian goods and services.

Diplomatically, India took advantage of Bangladesh’s nascent statehood to exert influence over its foreign policy. Efforts were made to align Bangladesh’s stance with Indian strategic interests, sometimes at the cost of Bangladesh’s own priorities. This was particularly evident in the handling of regional issues, where Bangladesh’s voice was often overshadowed by India’s dominant position.

The cultural sphere also saw significant Indian influence. Indian media, particularly Bollywood, began to dominate Bangladeshi entertainment, subtly promoting Indian cultural values and norms. This cultural influx, while seemingly benign, contributed to a gradual erosion of Bangladesh’s distinct cultural identity and further deepened the perception of dependency.

India’s involvement in Bangladesh’s internal politics during this period was another contentious issue. By supporting certain political factions and undermining others, India attempted to shape the political landscape in its favor. This interference not only fueled political instability but also bred resentment among Bangladeshis who saw it as a violation of their sovereignty.

Geopolitical Context: Expanding Hegemony in South Asia

Regional Ambitions

India’s hegemonic ambitions extend beyond Bangladesh to encompass the entire South Asian region. It seeks to establish itself as the dominant power by interfering in the internal affairs of its neighbors, whether through direct intervention or by leveraging economic and political influence. The long-standing border issues with Nepal, disputes with Pakistan over Kashmir, and tensions with Sri Lanka over Tamil politics are all indicative of a broader pattern of hegemonic behavior.

India’s regional ambitions and hegemonic tendencies in South Asia can be analyzed through its relationships with its neighbors and its overarching foreign policy objectives. The country, by virtue of its size, population, economy, and military strength, naturally wields significant influence in the region. However, its attempts to assert dominance often manifest as interference in the internal matters of neighboring states, leading to friction and suspicion. Here’s an expanded elaboration on the subject:

1. Bangladesh: A Testing Ground for Influence

India’s relationship with Bangladesh often reflects its strategy of exerting economic and political leverage. While the two countries share cultural, historical, and economic ties, India’s approach to water sharing, trade policies, and border management often raises concerns in Dhaka. For example: The unresolved Teesta River water-sharing agreement exemplifies India’s reluctance to provide equitable solutions, leaving Bangladesh vulnerable to seasonal water shortages. Despite being a significant trading partner, India’s exports to Bangladesh far exceed its imports, leading to an economic dependency that undermines Bangladesh’s self-reliance. The border killings by India’s Border Security Force (BSF) remain a contentious issue, reflecting the power imbalance in managing cross-border relations.

2. Pakistan: A Historic Rivalry with Strategic Implications

The India-Pakistan rivalry, centered primarily on the Kashmir conflict, is emblematic of India’s regional aspirations. India’s abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, which revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, was perceived as a unilateral move that heightened tensions in the region. Frequent cross-border skirmishes and accusations of sponsoring terrorism keep the bilateral relations at a stalemate, undermining regional stability. India’s attempts to diplomatically isolate Pakistan at international forums reflect its broader strategy to weaken its rival’s influence.

3. Nepal: Border Disputes and Economic Dependency

India’s relationship with Nepal has historically been shaped by cultural ties and economic interdependence. However, recent disputes highlight a growing distrust: The Kalapani-Lipulekh-Limpiyadhura region remains a bone of contention, with both nations claiming sovereignty.In 2015, India’s unofficial blockade of Nepal during the Madhesi agitation created severe economic hardships, signaling India’s readiness to use its economic might to influence Nepalese politics.

4. Sri Lanka: Tamil Politics and Strategic Concerns

India’s involvement in Sri Lanka has been a complex interplay of ethnic politics and strategic interests. India’s support for Tamil insurgents in the 1980s, followed by its military intervention through the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF), demonstrated its willingness to intervene directly in its neighbor’s internal conflicts. Sri Lanka’s increasing alignment with China, particularly through projects like the Hambantota Port, has made India wary, prompting it to intensify its efforts to maintain influence in the island nation.

5. Bhutan and Maldives: The Smaller Neighbors

India’s relationships with Bhutan and Maldives reveal its attempts to maintain dominance over smaller neighbors: While Bhutan shares a strong partnership with India, its dependency on India for trade and security has raised concerns about sovereignty. India’s interventions, such as in 1988 during an attempted coup, underscore its readiness to protect its strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.

6. Broader Regional Pattern

India’s regional behavior is also shaped by:

Initiatives like BIMSTEC and SAARC are often leveraged by India to maintain leadership in regional economic and political agendas. India’s efforts to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in South Asia highlight its desire to remain the primary power in the region. India uses cultural, religious, and educational ties to bolster its influence, but these efforts are sometimes viewed with skepticism by neighboring nations. India’s ambitions to emerge as the preeminent power in South Asia often lead to friction with its neighbors. While its size and resources give it a natural advantage, its actions—ranging from direct intervention to economic coercion—can foster resentment and undermine regional harmony. A more balanced and cooperative approach, respecting the sovereignty and aspirations of its neighbors, could serve both India and the region better in the long term.

The Arakan and Chittagong Nexus

The Arakan region of Myanmar, also known as Rakhine State, is a strategically significant area with implications for regional geopolitics. Its location along the Bay of Bengal and proximity to Bangladesh, India, and China has made it a focal point for power dynamics involving these nations. The activities of the Arakan Army and the interests of India and China add layers of complexity to the region, raising concerns about its potential to destabilize Bangladesh’s southeastern border. Here’s an expanded analysis:

1. The Strategic Importance of the Arakan Region

The Arakan region’s importance stems from several factors: Positioned along the Bay of Bengal, the Arakan region serves as a key maritime hub for trade routes linking South and Southeast Asia. The region is rich in natural resources, including oil, gas, and minerals, which have attracted significant investments from regional powers like China and India. Its adjacency to Bangladesh’s southeastern border makes it a critical zone for cross-border security, trade, and migration dynamics.

2. The Role of the Arakan Army

The Arakan Army (AA), an insurgent group seeking greater autonomy for Rakhine State, controls significant parts of the region. Its activities have broader implications: The AA’s presence near the Bangladesh-Myanmar border poses challenges for Bangladesh’s security, as armed groups could exploit porous borders for smuggling, recruitment, and destabilization. Reports suggest that both India and China may be engaging with the AA to further their strategic interests. Such interactions could embolden the group, complicating efforts to stabilize the region.

3. India’s Strategic Engagement in the Arakan Region

India’s interest in the Arakan region can be understood in the context of its broader objectives in Myanmar and South Asia: Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project: India is developing this ambitious project to connect its northeastern states to Myanmar’s Sittwe Port via Mizoram, bypassing the Siliguri Corridor. This project enhances India’s access to Southeast Asia but also increases its stake in the stability of the Arakan region. Countering China’s Influence: India’s engagement in the region is partly motivated by its desire to counter China’s dominance. By cultivating ties with groups like the Arakan Army, India might be attempting to balance Beijing’s influence while securing its own strategic foothold. Buffer Zone Creation: There are speculations that India’s interactions with groups in the Arakan region aim to establish a buffer zone to protect its northeastern borders from spillover instability.

4. China’s Growing Investments in the Arakan Region

China’s presence in Rakhine State is marked by its strategic projects and investments: China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) includes critical infrastructure like pipelines transporting oil and gas from the Bay of Bengal to China’s Yunnan Province, bypassing the Malacca Strait. Kyaukpyu Port is a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this deep-sea port enhances China’s maritime access to the Indian Ocean, solidifying its presence in South Asia. China’s financial and political support to Myanmar’s government and various ethnic groups, including the Arakan Army, grants it significant influence over the region’s dynamics.

5. Implications for Bangladesh

Bangladesh finds itself in a precarious position amid the power play between India and China in the Arakan region: Increased activity by the Arakan Army and other armed groups near the southeastern border raises the risk of cross-border violence, smuggling, and refugee influxes. Trade routes and maritime access could be disrupted if instability escalates in the region, impacting Bangladesh’s aspirations for connectivity and regional trade. Both India and China’s involvement in the Arakan region could pressure Bangladesh to align with one power over the other, potentially compromising its policy of balanced diplomacy.

6. The Myanmar Factor

Myanmar’s internal instability, marked by ethnic conflicts and military control, complicates the situation: The central government’s limited authority in the Arakan region creates a vacuum that external powers can exploit. Myanmar’s military junta might leverage India and China’s interests to extract economic and political concessions, further entrenching its authoritarian rule.

7. A Complex Geopolitical Chessboard

The interplay between India and China in the Arakan region reflects a broader competition for influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Key trends include: Both countries may use groups like the Arakan Army to achieve strategic objectives while avoiding direct confrontation. Competing infrastructure projects in Myanmar highlight the region’s significance as a gateway to the Bay of Bengal and beyond. The power struggle between India and China in the Arakan region has the potential to destabilize neighboring areas, including Bangladesh’s southeastern border. The Arakan region is a flashpoint of strategic interest for both India and China, each vying for influence in ways that could destabilize the surrounding areas. For Bangladesh, the nexus between the Arakan region and its southeastern border demands heightened vigilance and proactive diplomacy. Ensuring border security, fostering regional stability, and balancing relationships with both India and China will be crucial for safeguarding its sovereignty and national interests.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Strategies

Potential Future Scenarios: Analysis

India’s strategic ambitions in South Asia and its approach toward Bangladesh may unfold in various ways, each with significant implications for Bangladesh’s sovereignty, security, and economic well-being. Below is a detailed exploration of each potential scenario:

1. Increased Interference: Leveraging Communal and Ethnic Tensions

India’s history of engaging in the internal dynamics of neighboring countries suggests that it may continue to use communal and ethnic divisions in Bangladesh to exert influence.

Communal Tensions: India could exploit Bangladesh’s religious and ethnic diversity to create divisions, particularly between the Muslim majority and Hindu minority communities. By raising issues of minority rights, India may position itself as a global advocate for human rights, potentially undermining Bangladesh’s internal unity. Allegations of communal violence in Bangladesh could be amplified by Indian media and diplomatic channels to tarnish Bangladesh’s international image.

Ethnic Tensions: India might leverage ethnic grievances in areas like the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) or among indigenous communities to pressure the Bangladeshi government. By supporting or appearing to support separatist sentiments, India could destabilize Bangladesh’s southeastern region and strengthen its bargaining position.

Political Interference: India may influence internal political parties and electoral outcomes, favoring those perceived to align with its strategic objectives. Historical examples of such interference indicate this is a plausible future strategy.

2. Border Instability: Chittagong Hill Tracts and Arakan Region

The border regions between Bangladesh and Myanmar, particularly the CHT and Arakan State, remain hotspots for potential instability.

Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT): The CHT, with its history of insurgencies and unresolved tensions between indigenous communities and settlers, remains vulnerable to external manipulation. India could indirectly fuel unrest in the region by supporting factions that challenge the Bangladeshi government’s authority. Proliferation of arms and smuggling activities across the border could exacerbate security challenges.

Arakan Region: The presence of the Arakan Army near Bangladesh’s southeastern border poses a direct threat. If India engages with the group to secure its own interests in Myanmar, it could inadvertently destabilize Bangladesh’s border areas. Refugee crises stemming from Myanmar’s instability might burden Bangladesh further, with little or no support from India, which may use the situation to its advantage diplomatically.

Cross-Border Militancy: India’s activities in the region could lead to the rise of militant groups that operate across borders, making it harder for Bangladesh to maintain control over its southeastern frontier.

3. Economic Pressure: Leveraging Trade Dependencies

India’s economic relationship with Bangladesh is marked by imbalances that could be used to exert pressure.

Trade Imbalances: India’s exports to Bangladesh far exceed its imports, creating an economic dependency that could be manipulated to extract concessions.Imposing non-tariff barriers or delays in trade agreements could be used as tools to pressure Bangladesh on political or strategic issues.

Energy Dependency: Bangladesh imports significant amounts of electricity from India. Disruptions in this energy supply could be used as leverage during negotiations. Dependence on Indian firms for infrastructure and development projects could further entrench this economic leverage.

Market Dominance: India’s dominance in sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and consumer goods could weaken Bangladesh’s local industries, increasing dependency over time. Strategic delay or denial of joint ventures or investments could hamper Bangladesh’s economic growth.

4. International Lobbying: Diplomatic Isolation

India’s growing influence on global platforms allows it to shape international narratives, which could be detrimental to Bangladesh.

Human Rights and Governance: India could amplify issues related to governance, press freedom, and human rights in Bangladesh at international forums to isolate the country diplomatically. Lobbying with international organizations like the UN, EU, or global watchdogs could damage Bangladesh’s image, making it harder for Dhaka to attract investments and international partnerships.

Refugee Crisis Narratives: India may use the Rohingya refugee crisis to portray Bangladesh as an unstable or overburdened state, shifting the narrative to its advantage. Highlighting failures to manage refugee camps or security issues could impact Bangladesh’s credibility in global humanitarian discussions.

Regional and Global Alliances: India’s alliances with Western powers and its position in organizations like BRICS, G20, and the Quad could be used to marginalize Bangladesh diplomatically.Initiatives to promote India’s regional leadership might leave Bangladesh isolated within South Asian forums like SAARC and BIMSTEC.

China Factor: India could portray Bangladesh’s growing ties with China as a security concern to Western powers, framing it as part of a larger geopolitical rivalry, potentially alienating Bangladesh from influential international partners. India’s potential strategies to exert influence over Bangladesh range from direct interference in internal affairs to leveraging economic dependencies and diplomatic narratives. For Bangladesh, these scenarios demand a multi-pronged response that includes strengthening internal cohesion, diversifying trade and energy partners, enhancing border security, and pursuing balanced foreign relations. By anticipating these challenges and acting proactively, Bangladesh can safeguard its sovereignty and maintain stability in the face of growing regional complexities.

Strategic Recommendations for Bangladesh: Detailed Analysis

To safeguard its sovereignty and navigate the complex geopolitical environment, Bangladesh must adopt a comprehensive strategy addressing internal unity, regional partnerships, economic resilience, and defense capabilities. Each recommendation below provides a roadmap for enhancing national strength and countering external pressures.

1. Strengthening National Unity

Internal unity is the cornerstone of resisting external interference. Divisions along ethnic, religious, or political lines make a country vulnerable to manipulation.

Fostering Social Cohesion: Launch nationwide campaigns promoting tolerance, mutual respect, and the shared history of all communities in Bangladesh. Encourage cross-cultural and interfaith dialogues to bridge gaps between diverse groups. Celebrate the contributions of all ethnic and religious communities to the nation’s development.

Educational Reforms: Introduce curriculum changes emphasizing national identity, inclusive history, and respect for diversity. Establish programs in schools and universities to educate the youth about the dangers of communal and ethnic divisions.

Inclusive Governance: Ensure fair representation of minority groups in government, military, and law enforcement institutions. Create policies addressing grievances of marginalized groups, particularly in regions like the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT).

2. Diversifying Alliances

Reducing over reliance on India for trade, defense, and diplomatic support is crucial. Building alliances with other nations and regional organizations can provide alternative avenues for cooperation.

Strengthening Relations with China: Deepen economic cooperation under initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) while maintaining a cautious approach to debt sustainability. Collaborate on infrastructure projects, technological advancement, and trade expansion.

Expanding Ties with Japan: Japan is a major development partner for Bangladesh. Enhance collaboration on infrastructure projects, particularly in transportation, energy, and urban development. Encourage Japanese investments in Bangladesh’s Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to boost industrial growth.

Engaging ASEAN Countries: Strengthen trade partnerships with ASEAN nations to integrate more deeply into Southeast Asia’s dynamic economic network. Explore defense cooperation opportunities with nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam for joint training and capacity building.

Diversifying Military Cooperation: Expand military exchanges and training with countries like Turkey, the UK, and the USA to build strategic flexibility. Procure modern defense equipment from multiple sources to reduce dependence on any single nation.

3. Enhancing Border Security

Securing borders, particularly in vulnerable areas like the southeastern region near the Arakan and CHT, is critical for preventing insurgencies and illegal activities.

Fortifying Physical Infrastructure: Build well-monitored fences along sensitive stretches of the border. Establish additional border outposts with modern facilities for rapid response to threats.

Advanced Surveillance Systems: Deploy drones, radar systems, and high-tech surveillance equipment for real-time border monitoring. Use biometric systems at border crossings to track movements effectively.

International Cooperation: Collaborate with organizations like INTERPOL and neighboring countries to combat cross-border crime and militancy. Seek technical and financial assistance from global security organizations for border management projects.

Community Engagement: Engage border communities in security initiatives by creating awareness programs and providing incentives for cooperation.

4. Promoting Economic Independence

Building a self-reliant economy and reducing trade imbalances with India will enhance Bangladesh’s strategic autonomy.

Encouraging Local Industries:

Provide incentives such as tax breaks, low-interest loans, and subsidies to develop domestic industries like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Promote small and medium enterprises (SMEs) as a backbone of the economy.

Diversifying Trade Partnerships: Strengthen trade agreements with countries in Europe, North America, and the Middle East to expand export markets. Focus on developing trade relations with emerging economies in Africa and Latin America.

Reducing Trade Deficits: Invest in sectors where Bangladesh can compete with Indian exports, such as agriculture and manufacturing. Negotiate more favorable terms in bilateral trade agreements with India to ensure mutual benefit.

Energy Self-Sufficiency: Expand renewable energy projects, such as solar and wind, to reduce dependence on energy imports. Explore domestic gas and oil reserves for long-term energy security.

5. Engaging in Diplomatic Efforts

Proactive diplomacy is essential for countering India’s narrative and securing international support.

Highlighting Sovereignty Issues: Raise concerns about India’s hegemonic behavior at international forums, focusing on its impact on regional stability. Share evidence of any interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs to build global awareness.

Strengthening Regional Organizations: Revitalize SAARC by encouraging multilateral cooperation among South Asian nations to reduce India’s unilateral dominance. Actively engage in BIMSTEC and other regional initiatives to foster collaborative development.

Building Global Alliances: Strengthen ties with the UN, OIC, and other multilateral organizations to amplify Bangladesh’s voice on issues like the Rohingya crisis and economic justice. Partner with human rights organizations to demonstrate Bangladesh’s commitment to democracy and good governance.

6. Investing in Defense Capabilities

A modern and well-equipped defense system will enable Bangladesh to address both external threats and internal security challenges.

Modernizing the Military: Procure advanced weaponry and defense systems to improve operational capabilities. Focus on building a self-reliant defense industry by investing in research, development, and production of military equipment.

Strengthening Intelligence Capabilities: Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms with friendly nations to counter transnational threats. Invest in cyber intelligence and counterintelligence to address emerging threats in the digital domain.

Training and Preparedness: Conduct regular joint exercises with international allies to improve the readiness of armed forces. Develop specialized units to tackle unconventional threats like insurgency, terrorism, and cyber warfare.

Conclusion

These strategic recommendations offer a roadmap for Bangladesh to strengthen its internal and external resilience. By fostering unity, diversifying alliances, enhancing border security, promoting economic independence, engaging diplomatically, and investing in defense, Bangladesh can counter external pressures, including India’s hegemonic tendencies, and secure a prosperous, sovereign future. Proactive implementation of these measures will ensure that Bangladesh remains a strong and stable player in the regional and global arena.

India’s approach towards Bangladesh, marked by a mix of cooperation and coercion, reflects its broader regional ambitions. While the challenges posed by India’s hegemonic policies are significant, Bangladesh has the resilience and capacity to navigate these complexities. By fostering internal cohesion, diversifying alliances, and strengthening its diplomatic and security apparatus, Bangladesh can safeguard its sovereignty and ensure a stable and prosperous future. With a strategic and unified approach, Bangladesh can turn these challenges into opportunities, asserting its rightful place as a sovereign and influential nation in South Asia.