Since 2017, Bangladesh has been hosting approximately 1.3 million forcibly displaced Rohingya refugees who fled persecution, ethnic cleansing, and systematic violence perpetrated by Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw). Despite extensive diplomatic efforts, legal initiatives at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and multifaceted international advocacy, the Rohingya repatriation process remains stalled. This prolonged deadlock has raised critical questions regarding the effectiveness of Bangladesh’s diplomatic approach, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on traditional diplomacy and soft power.
The Rohingya community, predominantly Muslim, has been residing in Myanmar’s Rakhine State for centuries. Yet, for decades, they have faced systematic discrimination, marginalization, and persecution by successive Myanmar governments. Despite their historical presence in Rakhine State, the Myanmar government has consistently denied recognizing the Rohingya as an indigenous ethnic group, instead labeling them as illegal immigrants from neighboring Bangladesh. The controversial Citizenship Law of 1982 formally stripped them of their citizenship, rendering them stateless and depriving them of basic rights such as education, employment, healthcare, freedom of movement, and political participation.
The situation worsened significantly in 2012 when communal violence erupted in Rakhine State, triggered by allegations of criminal incidents but rapidly escalating into widespread anti-Rohingya violence. Thousands of Rohingya homes and villages were burned down, forcing thousands into overcrowded, inhumane internment camps. Rather than protecting the vulnerable Rohingya population, Myanmar’s security forces either stood passively by or actively participated in violence, reinforcing a culture of impunity and exacerbating anti-Rohingya sentiments.
The most horrific phase of violence occurred in August 2017, when Myanmar’s military launched a brutal and extensive operation in response to alleged attacks by Rohingya militants. This military crackdown involved widespread atrocities, systematic massacres, sexual violence, arson attacks, and forced displacement, driving over 700,000 Rohingya refugees into Bangladesh within just a few months. The international community quickly condemned the military’s actions, labeling them as ethnic cleansing and genocide. Human rights organizations and numerous governments worldwide strongly criticized Myanmar’s conduct and demanded accountability.
Despite clear evidence of crimes against humanity documented by international observers and human rights organizations, Myanmar continues to evade meaningful international accountability due to geopolitical complexities and strategic interests of influential nations. Diplomatic attempts for a lasting resolution have repeatedly failed, primarily because Myanmar consistently denies its responsibility and refuses to create conditions conducive to the safe return of the Rohingya. Consequently, hundreds of thousands of Rohingya remain stranded in precarious conditions in refugee camps in Bangladesh and elsewhere, facing an uncertain future while their fundamental rights continue to be neglected. The Rohingya crisis, thus, remains one of the gravest ongoing humanitarian catastrophes globally, vividly illustrating the tragic consequences of entrenched prejudice, unchecked state violence, and international inaction.
Major Obstacles to Repatriation:
Myanmar’s Persistent Hostility: Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw) continues to maintain its hostile stance against the Rohingya community, making conditions highly unfavorable for their safe repatriation. Rakhine State remains plagued by continuous human rights abuses, systemic violence, arbitrary arrests, and persecution directed against the Rohingya. The Myanmar government and its military refuse to acknowledge the legitimate rights and ethnic identity of the Rohingya community, generating profound fear among refugees. Consequently, despite repeated repatriation agreements, the Rohingya community remains reluctant to return to an environment marked by violence, insecurity, and uncertainty. Myanmar’s ongoing hostility not only impedes safe and dignified repatriation but also carries risks of prolonged instability and regional tensions.
Lack of International Cooperation: A major hurdle to exerting effective international pressure on Myanmar lies in the geopolitical interests of influential regional powers. Countries such as China and India, prioritizing their own economic investments and strategic relations with Myanmar, consistently overlook humanitarian and moral imperatives. China, being Myanmar’s largest economic partner, continues to maintain a neutral stance on the Rohingya issue, effectively shielding Myanmar from significant international accountability. Similarly, India places greater importance on economic and security interests tied to its northeastern states and thus refrains from applying substantial diplomatic pressure on Myanmar. Due to this geopolitical environment, sanctions and diplomatic measures imposed by the United Nations and Western countries have had limited practical impact. Consequently, Myanmar feels little urgency or pressure to genuinely address or resolve the Rohingya crisis.
Growing Security Risks: The presence of approximately 1.3 million Rohingya refugees for a prolonged period has substantially increased economic, social, and security risks for Bangladesh. The sheer volume of refugees has intensified pressure on local resources, triggering severe ecological damage, deforestation, water scarcity, food shortages, and competition for employment. Frustration and social tensions among local communities are growing rapidly, potentially creating conditions for internal conflict and unrest in the future. Additionally, the refugee camps have become fertile grounds for extremist and terrorist organizations seeking to exploit the prevailing despair and uncertainty to recruit vulnerable refugees. Moreover, there is a rise in criminal activities such as human trafficking, drug smuggling, and various other crimes, posing a serious threat to Bangladesh’s internal security and stability. Unless the Rohingya crisis is swiftly resolved, Bangladesh may face severe long-term repercussions to its national security.
Strategic Role of the Arakan Army (AA):
The Arakan Army, comprising approximately 30,000 armed members, has dramatically altered the geopolitical dynamics within Myanmar’s Rakhine State through its effective resistance against Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw). The AA currently controls substantial portions of Rakhine State, creating new strategic opportunities for Bangladesh.
Despite regional pressures, notably diplomatic influence from India, Bangladesh has thus far refrained from establishing active engagement with the Arakan Army. Given the AA’s proven effectiveness in challenging Myanmar’s military dominance, Bangladesh needs to reconsider its current diplomatic hesitancy. Strategic collaboration with the AA could significantly contribute towards establishing a stable and autonomous administrative framework within Rakhine, ultimately facilitating a safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation of Rohingya refugees.
Expanding Bangladesh’s Strategic and Hard Power Capabilities:
If the Arakan Army (AA), comprising only around 30,000 fighters, can significantly challenge Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw), it logically raises a critical question: is it not feasible for Bangladesh to create and support a strong, disciplined resistance force of about 50,000 fighters from among the 1.3 million Rohingya refugees currently sheltered within its territory?
Why has Bangladesh confined itself solely to traditional soft-power approaches? The prolonged Rohingya crisis has evolved from a humanitarian issue into a significant national security threat for Bangladesh, necessitating a strategic shift towards credible and proactive hard power development. Strategically supporting and training Rohingya freedom fighters could dramatically increase Bangladesh’s geopolitical leverage, compelling Myanmar to negotiate seriously and facilitating a sustainable resolution to the crisis.
Renewed Foreign Policy Direction under the Dr. Yunus Government:
The government under Dr. Yunus appears poised to adopt a more assertive, pragmatic, and interest-based foreign policy, shifting away from Bangladesh’s traditional reliance on soft power alone. Bangladesh must now clearly prioritize its national security, humanitarian obligations, and geopolitical interests through a more proactive foreign policy framework.
To achieve this, the following steps should be seriously considered:
Strategic Alliances: Bangladesh must diversify and strengthen international partnerships beyond its traditional reliance on India and China, actively building strategic alliances with the United States, Japan, Australia, and other ASEAN countries sympathetic to the Rohingya cause. Such diversified alliances will enable Bangladesh to exert more substantial diplomatic pressure on Myanmar.
Assertive and Robust Diplomacy: Bangladesh needs to utilize geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region strategically. By doing so, it can effectively amplify international pressure on Myanmar, forcing it to reconsider its rigid stance and to move toward genuine negotiations regarding Rohingya repatriation.
Economic and Military Sanctions: Bangladesh should actively engage with international partners to implement targeted economic and military sanctions against Myanmar. Coordinated international sanctions could compel Myanmar’s military regime to accept accountability and create necessary conditions conducive for the dignified and secure return of the Rohingya population.
Building Credible Military Capacity: Bangladesh should boldly explore the possibility of training and supporting an organized Rohingya resistance force capable of exerting tangible pressure on Myanmar. A credible Rohingya resistance would significantly alter regional dynamics, compelling Myanmar to pursue genuine negotiations and solutions.
Conclusion:
Bangladesh can no longer afford diplomatic inertia or humanitarian approaches alone. It must embrace proactive, pragmatic, and robust diplomacy backed by credible hard power capabilities. Strengthening strategic engagement with the Arakan Army, diversifying international partnerships, and carefully considering the formation of an organized Rohingya resistance force are critical steps. Assertive, innovative, and strategic policymaking is urgently required to safeguard Bangladesh’s national security and achieve a lasting and just resolution to the Rohingya crisis.
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