Rokan's Journal

-By Brig Gen (Retd) HRM Rokan Uddin, psc, phd

Since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian regime in August 2024, Bangladesh has entered a critical phase in its national life. The transitional government, under the leadership of Dr. Muhammad Yunus, has been working to stabilize the country, reform key institutions, and pave the way for a genuinely democratic and representative system. However, this process of internal reform and political transition has not been free from external interferences—most notably from India, which has persistently deployed a full spectrum of covert, diplomatic, military, and psychological operations to destabilize Bangladesh’s progress. India has long pursued a hegemonic strategy in South Asia, often projecting itself as a regional policeman under the guise of security and economic integration. Bangladesh has historically been a victim of this strategic overreach. However, since the collapse of the fascist rule of Sheikh Hasina—a regime widely viewed by the people of Bangladesh as subservient to Indian interests—India has intensified its efforts to discredit the new government, derail reform efforts, and push the country back into a state of dependency.

A series of hostile actions originating from across the border confirms this alarming pattern. There have been repeated attempts to push illegal Indian residents into Bangladeshi territory, inflaming tensions in the border areas. The rise in unprovoked border killings by India’s BSF, accompanied by disputed claims over demarcation lines, points to a deliberate attempt to provoke instability. In parallel, intelligence reports suggest growing coordination between Indian operatives and non-state actors such as the Arakan Army and other insurgent groups operating across the southeastern frontier. This has added a new dimension of threat, particularly to the Chittagong Hill Tracts and the coastal regions adjacent to the Bay of Bengal. Moreover, India has escalated its military posture by increasing deployment near the Siliguri Corridor, a sensitive strategic chokepoint. Even the deployment of fighter aircraft in the area suggests that New Delhi is not averse to projecting kinetic threats to achieve its geopolitical goals. This militarized posture is in direct contradiction to the narrative of “friendly neighborhood diplomacy” that India often markets globally. It is evident that New Delhi views Bangladesh not as an equal sovereign neighbor but as a satellite to be managed in alignment with Indian strategic designs.

But perhaps more dangerous than the external posturing is India’s internal meddling within Bangladesh. There are credible signs that Indian intelligence is actively working to create discord among political factions, civil society, and even within the armed forces and state institutions. The goal is clear: fragment the national unity that currently supports the reform initiatives of the interim government and obstruct the smooth transition to a new democratic order. Attempts are being made to rush an early election before structural reforms and judicial processes can be completed. India wants to manipulate this window of opportunity to implant a regime that will again serve its interests rather than those of the Bangladeshi people. In this context, national unity is not a luxury but a necessity. The people of Bangladesh, the armed forces, political parties, civil administration, and patriotic media must realize the gravity of the situation. Unity of purpose and clarity of vision are the only defense against hybrid warfare and subversion. The current government’s reform agenda must be supported and implemented without delay. These reforms—be they in the judiciary, anti-corruption measures, economic transparency, or electoral integrity—are long-standing demands of the people. Justice must be served, and the criminals of the past regime must face trial under due process. Only then can Bangladesh move towards a free, fair, and participatory election that truly reflects the will of the people.

There are also new opportunities on the horizon that Bangladesh must not shy away from. Leasing port terminals and giving Humanitarian corridors to Rakhine State of Myanmar to support with humanitarian aids is a strategic move aimed at integrating Bangladesh into the global economy on equitable terms and solve Rohingya refugee issue. These steps promise investment, technological modernization, and regional connectivity. Unfortunately, enemies of the nation—both inside and outside the borders—are trying to tarnish these initiatives by projecting them as sellouts or threats to sovereignty. These are the same voices, often amplified by sections of the media, which echo narratives designed in New Delhi. Whether knowingly or unknowingly, they play into India’s hands by opposing policies that are actually aligned with Bangladesh’s long-term national interests.

At this critical juncture, it is imperative for the nation to remain clear-eyed. Bangladesh must not fall prey to manufactured dissent or misinformation campaigns. It must distinguish between patriotic reform and externally instigated chaos. The path to a stronger, independent, and democratic Bangladesh lies in standing firm against foreign interference, supporting national reforms, allowing justice to prevail, and conducting elections only when the foundation for transparency and fairness has been fully restored. Bangladesh today stands at a defining moment in its history, a moment that will be remembered for generations to come. The nation is poised between two starkly different paths—each with far-reaching consequences. One path leads back to an era of subservience, where national decisions are dictated by external powers and the will of the people is suppressed by proxy rulers. It is a road marked by political manipulation, the erosion of sovereignty, and a cycle of dependency that undermines the very foundations of the republic. This is the path that invites chaos under the guise of stability, where foreign agendas masquerade as development plans, and national institutions serve interests other than those of the people.

The other path is more challenging, but it is also more dignified. It is the road to sovereignty—true sovereignty, not just in rhetoric, but in practice. It is a path where Bangladesh reclaims its identity as an independent, self-reliant, and proud nation. On this road, the dignity of the people is restored through justice, reforms, and a government that emerges from the collective will of the citizens, not from foreign lobbying or elite conspiracies. This road leads to a future where national resources are managed transparently, borders are protected decisively, and institutions are reformed to serve the public good, not partisan interests. The decision must be made with clarity and courage. It is not a time for hesitation or compromise. The forces that wish to drag Bangladesh backwards are determined and well-funded, but they cannot overcome a people who are aware, united, and resolute. History does not remember those who surrendered to fear or confusion; it remembers those who rose with determination when the future of the nation was on the line. Let it be recorded that in this moment of crisis and choice, the people of Bangladesh chose dignity over dependence, unity over division, and courage over submission. Let future generations look back and say that when Bangladesh stood at the crossroads, it moved forward—united, dignified, and unafraid.