Rokan's Journal

By Brig Gen (retd) HRM Rokan Uddin, psc, phd

The resignation of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 marked a historic turning point in Bangladesh’s political trajectory. After ruling for over 16 years, Hasina’s authoritarian governance style, suppression of dissent, and manipulation of electoral processes triggered a massive public backlash, especially from the youth and civil society. The “Monsoon Revolution”, as the movement came to be known, was ignited by the reintroduction of a controversial quota system for government jobs. Students and young professionals saw this as regressive and discriminatory, undermining meritocracy. What began as peaceful protests quickly swelled into a nationwide uprising, with support from academia, legal professionals, opposition groups, and even sections of the civil administration and security forces.

Following weeks of unrest and international pressure, Sheikh Hasina stepped down. The military and civil elite, seeking to stabilize the country, endorsed Dr. Muhammad Yunus, a globally respected economist and Nobel laureate, as the Chief Adviser of an interim technocratic government. His appointment was widely welcomed as a neutral and credible figure to oversee the transition.

Dr. Yunus and his interim government outlined a bold reform agenda aimed at restructuring the deeply politicized governance machinery. Key initiatives include: Revisiting the concentration of power in the executive branch, ensuring checks and balances. Proposing a new, independent Election Commission and updating voter rolls to ensure transparency. Addressing political influence over the judiciary and fast-tracking pending corruption cases. De-politicizing the bureaucracy, police, and intelligence agencies.

To achieve these, the government formed multiple high-level reform commissions composed of eminent jurists, economists, retired military officers, and civil society leaders. However, Yunus faces formidable challenges: Major political parties, particularly factions of the former ruling alliance, remain uncooperative. There is strong resistance from beneficiaries of the old regime—corrupt bureaucrats, pro-Awami League business lobbies, and foreign actors with vested interests. Internal divisions within the caretaker administration and rising public impatience due to delays in tangible reform outcomes have further strained the process. Yunus has publicly voiced his frustration, hinting at stepping down if the political impasse continues. His warning underscores the fragile nature of the current political arrangement.

Perhaps the most controversial but decisive move by the interim government was the suspension of the Awami League’s registration as a political party by the Election Commission of Bangladesh. Reasons are: The party’s involvement in undermining electoral democracy through rigged elections and judicial interference. Evidence of state-sponsored violence, including the deaths and disappearances of protesters during the 2023–2024 unrest. Serious national security threats, including illegal surveillance, weaponization of law enforcement, and politicization of intelligence agencies under the party’s rule. The suspension is part of a broader accountability drive, aimed at dismantling a deep state network that enabled the Awami League to cling to power despite diminishing public support.

Investigations are ongoing into: Embezzlement and offshore assets of party leaders. Human rights abuses by party-affiliated groups like the Chhatra League and Jubo League. Collusion with foreign intelligence agencies to suppress opposition. The suspension has sparked mixed reactions, Many within civil society and the youth movements see it as justice served.

Critics, including some international observers, caution against political exclusion, warning that banning major political forces may set a dangerous precedent. Nevertheless, the move has cleared the way for new political actors, civic groups, and youth-led platforms to participate in upcoming elections, possibly reshaping the future political landscape of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh’s relations with India have sharply deteriorated following the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s regime. Under Hasina, India enjoyed unprecedented strategic leverage in Bangladesh, including preferential access to ports, water-sharing agreements (often controversial), defense procurement deals, and a near-monopoly in Bangladesh’s strategic communication channels. However, her ouster in August 2024 has fundamentally shifted this balance.

After her resignation, Hasina reportedly took refuge in India under informal political asylum. Dhaka views this as interference in domestic affairs and a disregard for public sentiment in Bangladesh. In retaliation for the changing political landscape, India imposed tariff and non-tariff barriers on Bangladeshi goods—particularly on textile and agricultural exports—destined for Northeast India, a vital export market. This was perceived in Dhaka as economic coercion. Bangladesh terminated a major naval shipbuilding contract worth ₹179 crore (≈ USD 21 million) with India’s Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers (GRSE). The decision, officially attributed to “procurement review,” was widely interpreted as a symbolic severance from India’s defense influence. This sequence of events suggests a shift in Dhaka’s strategic thinking. The interim government is attempting to reassert sovereignty, reduce dependency on India, and recalibrate its regional partnerships—a move welcomed by many nationalist quarters within Bangladesh.

In a diplomatic move that surprised many observers, Bangladesh has initiated official-level engagement with Pakistan after nearly 15 years of cold relations. The dialogue, facilitated in part by third-party interlocutors like Turkey and Qatar, signals a major realignment in South Asian diplomacy.

The interim government is actively seeking to rebalance Bangladesh’s international posture, which had tilted disproportionately toward India during Hasina’s tenure. Shared Economic Interests: Both Pakistan and Bangladesh are large textile-exporting nations. Reviving trade relations, especially via preferential trade agreements, could be mutually beneficial. Bangladesh’s reengagement with Pakistan is also tied to its renewed diplomatic overtures to the broader Muslim world, including the OIC, Gulf countries, and Malaysia, which had been marginalized during the pro-Delhi Hasina era. There’s a cautious but growing call within Bangladeshi civil society to normalize ties with Pakistan, move beyond the 1971 war legacy, and prioritize 21st-century strategic needs. While symbolic and limited for now, this diplomatic thaw could redefine regional alignments and offer Bangladesh new leverage in multilateral forums like the SAARC, D-8, and OIC.

In a dramatic escalation of international scrutiny against the former ruling elite, the UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA) recently froze £90 million worth of real estate assets in London linked to relatives of Salman F Rahman, a prominent business tycoon and top adviser to Sheikh Hasina. The NCA’s action is based on unexplained wealth orders (UWOs), a legal mechanism used in the UK to investigate assets suspected of being acquired through illicit means. This move lends credibility to widespread allegations that the Hasina regime was involved in massive embezzlement and money laundering. This case marks a new era of transnational legal accountability, where Western institutions are being mobilized to go after corrupt officials and their global financial networks.

Bangladesh’s image had been tainted for years due to widespread reports of high-level corruption, especially involving public-private partnerships in energy, real estate, and banking sectors. The freezing of assets in the UK serves as a powerful symbolic victory for the reformist interim government. Reports indicate that investigations are underway in Dubai, Singapore, and Malaysia into properties and offshore companies connected to other Awami League figures. This could trigger a wider wave of asset freezes, international arrest warrants, and requests for repatriation of stolen funds. These developments have emboldened the interim government’s anti-corruption agenda and helped justify its aggressive stance against the old guard, both domestically and in international forums.

Bangladesh’s foreign policy is undergoing a paradigm shift. Once a close strategic junior partner to India and a passive player in regional diplomacy, the country is now: Actively diversifying alliances, Challenging old dependencies, Reasserting sovereignty, and Seeking a more balanced, independent, and corruption-free global identity. The success of this shift, however, depends on the stability of the interim government, its ability to complete institutional reforms, and the international community’s support in isolating and prosecuting corrupt actors of the previous regime.

Bangladesh stands at a crossroads, with its interim government striving to implement comprehensive reforms amidst internal and external challenges. The success of these initiatives will depend on the government’s ability to navigate political opposition, maintain public support, and manage complex foreign relations. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Bangladesh can achieve a stable and democratic governance structure