Rokan's Journal

— Brigadier General (Retd) HRM Rokan Uddin, psc, PhD

Just as the 12-day war between Iran and Israel began to settle, new tensions have flared. Iran has alleged that the United States is using so-called “diplomatic proposals” as a cover for military preparations. According to Iran’s state media, a senior government official claims they have intelligence suggesting Washington’s aim is not peace but war.

The Iranian official declared unequivocally, “If negotiations are just a pretext for war preparations, then there’s no point in wasting time.” This reflects not only a deep mistrust of the United States but also foreshadows a possible return to military conflict.

Historical Background: A Legacy of Mistrust Between Iran and the U.S.

The strained relationship between Iran and the U.S. is not new. In 1953, the CIA and British intelligence orchestrated a coup that overthrew Iran’s elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and reinstated the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. This event sowed the seeds of long-term resentment among the Iranian public.

Following the Islamic Revolution in 1979, which toppled the Shah, tensions skyrocketed when Iranian students stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took diplomats hostage. Since then, diplomatic relations have been severed, and U.S. policy has centered on sanctions, military threats, and regime containment.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a rare breakthrough, aiming to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanction relief. But in 2018, President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement and reinstated harsh sanctions—shattering Iran’s trust and reinforcing the belief that America is not a reliable negotiating partner.

Present Tensions: Diplomacy or Deception?

According to a senior Iranian official, their intelligence suggests that the U.S. is using negotiations as a smokescreen for military preparation. He emphasized that any real dialogue must be serious, realistic, and include guarantees—not another setup to disarm Iran while enabling Israeli military advantage.

There is deep skepticism surrounding U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff. The Iranians question whether he’s a peacemaker or an agent of escalation. Their doubts intensified after the June 22 U.S. airstrikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites, which occurred even before the end of a two-week negotiation window previously proposed by the Trump administration.

This has led Iran to believe that the U.S. is not genuinely seeking peace but rather buying time to strategically weaken Iran militarily.

Iran suspects that the true motive behind renewed talks is to compensate for Israel’s recent vulnerabilities and neutralize Iran’s military edge. Israel has long portrayed Iran as a “global threat” to justify preemptive strikes across the region—from Syria to Gaza to Lebanon.

The assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020 by a U.S. drone strike further reinforced Iran’s belief that Washington and Tel Aviv are operating in tandem to eliminate Iranian influence across the Middle East.

Israel’s role in U.S. strategy against Iran has long been that of a tactical partner, often acting as the frontline actor in military and intelligence operations. Iran perceives the renewed U.S. calls for diplomacy as a strategic maneuver to buy time for Israel to recover from recent setbacks and maintain its qualitative military edge. The 2020 U.S. drone strike that killed General Qasem Soleimani—a revered Iranian commander—was viewed by Tehran as a coordinated move with Israeli intelligence, aimed at crippling Iran’s regional network. This reinforced Iran’s belief that any negotiations are merely tactical distractions to advance a broader anti-Iran agenda.

A Return to War? Global Consequences Loom

A full-scale war between Iran and Israel could erupt at any moment, as no durable ceasefire or security framework is currently in place. If the U.S. again opts for military escalation, the fallout will be catastrophic—not only for Iran or Israel but for global oil supply and economic stability.

Analysts warn that such a conflict would likely spill over into Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and possibly even Afghanistan. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, nearly one-third of the world’s oil supply will be disrupted, plunging global markets into crisis.

The absence of a robust ceasefire mechanism or a trusted conflict-resolution framework makes the Iran-Israel standoff dangerously volatile. Any misstep or provocation—whether intentional or accidental—could trigger an all-out war. Should the U.S. re-engage militarily, it would exacerbate regional instability, with devastating consequences for energy security. Iran may retaliate by targeting U.S. bases or Israeli cities, and the conflict could rapidly expand into proxy battlegrounds like Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, drawing in non-state actors such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. A blockade or disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—through which one-third of global oil passes—could ignite a worldwide economic crisis.

Is Peace Still Possible?

Peace is not entirely out of reach, but it lies on a very narrow and complex path. Real diplomacy—grounded in sincerity, realism, and neutrality—is essential. The U.S. must abandon its history of double-dealing and unilateralism and create a credible environment for dialogue.

Regional blocs like the United Nations, the European Union, the OIC, or BRICS could play an important role as neutral mediators. Only through multilateral engagement can a sustainable peace architecture be envisioned.

Achieving peace demands genuine diplomatic efforts rooted in mutual respect, not coercion. The U.S. must rebuild trust by committing to balanced, good-faith negotiations. Regional and global actors like the UN, EU, OIC, and BRICS must step in as impartial mediators to craft a multilateral framework that ensures long-term stability and security.

Conclusion: Not Another War, But a Call for Strategic Diplomacy

What the world needs now is not another Middle East war—but a recommitment to honest diplomacy, credible guarantees, and mutual respect.

The U.S. must prove its commitment not through rhetoric but through responsible action. And Iran, too, must navigate this critical juncture wisely.

A single miscalculation could ignite wildfire. The world cannot afford another prolonged war in the Middle East.

Let this be a turning point—not toward another war, but toward a framework for long-lasting peace and regional stability.

The time to act is now. This may be the final chance for diplomacy.