Rokan's Journal

By Brig Gen (Retd) HRM Rokan Uddin, psc, PhD

China has recently initiated construction of a massive hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in southeastern Tibet—known downstream as the Brahmaputra in India and Jamuna in Bangladesh. The scale of this project is monumental. The state-run Xinhua News Agency reports that the project, once completed, could rival or even surpass the famed Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River. The total estimated investment is a staggering 1.2 trillion yuan (approximately $167 billion USD).

While China frames this endeavor as part of its strategy to achieve carbon neutrality and boost economic development in the underdeveloped Tibetan region, the geopolitical, environmental, and humanitarian implications of the dam project are far-reaching and deeply concerning for downstream countries—particularly India and Bangladesh.

Historical Background: River of Civilizations and Conflict

Brahmaputra is no ordinary river. Rising in Tibet as the Yarlung Tsangpo, it flows through the narrow Himalayan gorge before entering India’s Arunachal Pradesh (which China claims as South Tibet) and then snakes through Assam and into Bangladesh where it merges with the Ganges and Meghna rivers, eventually emptying into the Bay of Bengal.

For centuries, the river has served as a lifeline to millions. In Bangladesh, it irrigates vast floodplains, sustains livelihoods, and fuels agriculture and fisheries. In Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, it is vital for hydroelectricity, agriculture, and flood control.

India and China have historically lacked a formal water-sharing agreement for the Brahmaputra. Although both countries have a limited Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for hydrological data-sharing during flood seasons, it is non-binding, and China is under no legal obligation to notify or consult India or Bangladesh before undertaking such massive upstream projects.

Strategic Implications: Water as a Geopolitical Weapon

Water security has long been a strategic concern in South Asia. As an upper riparian state, China holds significant leverage over major transboundary rivers originating in the Tibetan plateau. The Yarlung Tsangpo is one of the most geopolitically sensitive rivers in Asia, and by constructing a mega-dam without regional consensus, China is weaponizing water—potentially as a tool of coercion or deterrence.

This project is not merely a domestic infrastructure initiative. It carries the potential to alter seasonal flow patterns, disrupt sediment deposition, and even enable China to manipulate river flows during crises. India has raised concerns and formally protested the move, warning that it will “monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests.” However, China’s foreign ministry responded with vague assurances that the dam would not harm downstream states, promising to “maintain communication”—without offering any binding guarantees.

Environmental and Ecological Consequences

The Tibetan plateau, often called the “Third Pole” due to its massive glacier reserves, is one of the most ecologically fragile regions in the world. Building such a colossal dam in this region could have irreversible consequences—disrupting natural river ecosystems, threatening biodiversity, and increasing the risk of landslides, earthquakes, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

For Bangladesh, a country already on the front lines of climate change, altered river flows could devastate the fertile floodplains of the Brahmaputra basin. Reduced water availability during dry seasons and increased release during monsoons could lead to alternating periods of drought and flooding, further undermining food security and displacing millions.

Impact on India: Assam and Arunachal Pradesh in Peril

India’s northeastern states, particularly Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, are extremely vulnerable to any manipulation of Brahmaputra’s flow. A reduced flow would adversely impact hydroelectric projects, agriculture, and water-based livelihoods. More dangerously, a sudden release of water from the dam—whether intentional or due to technical failure—could cause devastating flash floods, similar to what occurred in Uttarakhand’s Chamoli disaster in 2021.

Furthermore, China’s choice to build the dam near the “Great Bend” of the Yarlung Tsangpo—close to the disputed India-China border—also raises national security alarms. In the event of armed conflict, control over water flow could become a strategic lever.

Bangladesh: Downstream Vulnerability

Bangladesh, the lowest riparian state on the Brahmaputra basin, faces existential challenges from upstream interventions. With over 65% of its water coming from outside its borders, any unilateral move by China or India can significantly affect Bangladesh’s agriculture, fisheries, and water supply.

Bangladesh has already faced challenges with India’s upstream projects on the Teesta and Ganges. China’s unilateral move adds another layer of insecurity and helplessness. Without formal trilateral cooperation or binding international agreements, Dhaka is left with limited recourse. Climate experts in Bangladesh have already warned of increased salinity, reduced agricultural productivity, and rural-urban migration resulting from upstream manipulation.

Lack of Regional Coordination and the Need for Multilateralism

Despite the Brahmaputra’s importance to multiple countries, there is a glaring absence of any comprehensive, multilateral river basin authority involving China, India, and Bangladesh. Unlike the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, or the Mekong River Commission in Southeast Asia, the Brahmaputra has no legal framework to ensure equitable usage, dispute resolution, or environmental sustainability.

This absence is dangerous. It not only increases distrust but also encourages unilateralism. China’s repeated refusal to enter into legally binding water-sharing agreements, while aggressively pursuing upstream infrastructure, reinforces fears of hydro-hegemony.

What Must Be Done: A Call for Strategic Diplomacy

India and Bangladesh must act jointly to initiate urgent diplomatic engagement with China and demand transparency, data-sharing, and an independent environmental impact assessment of the project.

The United Nations and international river governance bodies should be engaged to pressure China into adhering to international norms regarding transboundary river management.

Regional river cooperation frameworks involving Nepal, Bhutan, India, Bangladesh, and China must be revived or newly instituted with a focus on shared data, early warning systems, and equitable distribution.

People-to-people and academic exchange programs on climate and water security should be promoted to build trust, knowledge, and cooperation.

Conclusion: A River of Hope or a Source of Conflict?

The Brahmaputra is more than a river—it is a symbol of life, history, and shared destiny for over 600 million people across South Asia. If harnessed collaboratively, it can become a river of peace, prosperity, and regional integration. But if dominated by unilateralism and strategic ambition, it can easily turn into a fault line for conflict, displacement, and ecological collapse. China must realize that true power lies not in controlling rivers, but in building trust across borders. Water cannot be treated as a weapon. It is life. It is sovereignty. It is Peace. And peace must flow—like the Brahmaputra—free, fair, and forever.