Rokan's Journal

Brig Gen (Retd) HRM Rokan Uddin, psc, PhD

In a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, a quiet but consequential development is unfolding across Asia—one that could redraw the region’s strategic architecture. Recent reports indicate that Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, and China are exploring the formation of a multi-nation military cooperation pact, aimed at enhancing joint defense capabilities, strategic autonomy, and regional influence. Though still in its formative stage, this proposed alliance reflects a growing desire among these nations to diversify their security partnerships, challenge unipolar dominance, and create a counterbalance to traditional regional powers, particularly India and its Western allies.

For Bangladesh, this emerging pact signals a potential departure from decades of dependency on Indian strategic goodwill—especially after the fall of the Awami League’s authoritarian regime, long criticized for enabling external interference in national affairs. For Pakistan and China, it offers deeper penetration into the Bay of Bengal and South Asian influence zones. For Turkey, it represents an extension of its “Asia Anew” policy, seeking stronger ties with the Muslim world and emerging economies.

This article explores the strategic rationale, structure, and potential impact of this unprecedented military bloc—assessing its promises, pitfalls, and the regional recalibration it may ignite. In doing so, it sheds light on a rising alliance that could become a new pole of military and geopolitical cooperation in the Global South.

1. Origins & Geopolitical Motives: Since the interim government after Sheikh Hasina’s fall began distancing itself from India, Dhaka has quietly increased diplomatic and military outreach to Beijing, Islamabad, and Ankara. In June 2025, Bangladesh formally joined a trilateral economic and diplomatic framework with China and Pakistan, signaling willingness for deeper ties. Analysts have highlighted discussions among Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, and China about evolving this into a mutual defence pact—offering shared security guarantees, strategic depth, and military-industrial cooperation.

2. Pillars of the Proposed Pact: Like NATO’s collective defense clause, the pact may include language promising joint response in case any member faces military threats. This would mark a significant departure from past relations—especially as Bangladesh reframes its military posture away from India’s sphere. Turkey, which signed a defence cooperation agreement with Bangladesh in 2022, could transfer advanced systems like drone and missile technology, building on Chinese arms cooperation. Pakistan and China strengthen this with joint training exercises, hardware co-production, and logistics coordination. Expect expanded participation in Pakistan’s AMAN naval drills, new Indus Shield-type exercises involving air forces, and tripartite military seminars led by Turkey. A regional intelligence architecture against perceived threats (e.g., Indian strategic dominance or Western influence) may be developed. While Bangladesh is not nuclear-armed, the pact could establish a strategic umbrella—allowing access to Pakistani Chinese security assurances in crisis scenarios.

3. Strategic Benefits for Member States: Bangladesh gains autonomy and deterrence through diversified alliances. Pakistan deepens its security ties with China and gains safer space to rebalance against India. Turkey extends its “Asia Anew” initiative and defense diplomacy in South Asia. China weaves a containment ring around India, leveraging a cohesive bloc to amplify its regional influence.

4. India’s Strategic Concerns: A formal bloc with military guarantees undermines New Delhi’s objective of a stable, unipolar neighborhood. Intensified military collaboration may force India to bolster its own defence partnerships and military readiness. Expanded AI-enabled surveillance, drones, and intelligence cooperation across borders could heighten tension in India–Bangladesh and India–Pakistan areas.

5. Challenges & Uncertainties: Bangladesh–Pakistan reconciliation remains contentious, with lingering 1971 war trauma complicating deep integration. Member capabilities vary widely—from nuclear-armed Pakistan to non-nuclear Bangladesh—making full military alignment complex. The United States, Quad nations, and India may counterbalance this bloc through diplomatic, economic, and military inducements.

6. Policy Implications

a. For Dhaka: Strategic Diversification vs Domestic Sovereignty

As Bangladesh moves beyond the legacy of an India-aligned foreign policy under the previous regime, the new leadership faces a delicate balancing act. The proposed military pact offers unprecedented strategic depth, but its execution must be measured, domestically grounded, and diplomatically neutral.

Key Considerations:

Strategic Autonomy Without Provocation: Dhaka must avoid overcommitting to any single bloc. While greater ties with Turkey, China, and Pakistan offer much-needed leverage, Bangladesh must project itself as a sovereign, non-aligned power, not a proxy for anti-India or anti-Western coalitions.

Civil-Military Consensus: Any long-term pact must be backed by both the civilian leadership and the military establishment. Military cooperation should be framed as a sovereign right to diversify defense options—not as a response to old alliances or ideological alignments.

Public Perception and Internal Narrative: Nationalist sentiment is rising across Bangladesh, but the public remains wary of new entanglements. The government must ensure that the partnership is presented transparently, emphasizing self-reliance, technological advancement, and national dignity—not dependence on a new set of foreign powers.

Economic and Strategic Integration: Alongside military cooperation, Bangladesh should seek trade, technology, and infrastructure agreements with pact members—building a holistic strategic partnership, not just a defense-centric alignment.

b. For Delhi: Diplomacy, Recalibration, and Soft Containment

India views Bangladesh as a critical part of its periphery defense doctrine, and the prospect of a regional defense pact excluding Delhi—particularly one involving China and Pakistan—is a strategic red flag. However, heavy-handed reactions could backfire. A smarter, more strategic Indian response would involve:

Strategic Recommendations:

Re-engage Dhaka Through Respectful Diplomacy: Delhi must accept the reality of a more independent Bangladesh. Rather than attempting to isolate or pressure Dhaka, India should repair trust through sincere diplomacy, economic packages, and mutually respectful cooperation.

Support Development Without Coercion: India’s influence during the Hasina regime was often perceived as coercive. A post-Hasina environment demands a shift from political manipulation to partnership-building, especially in areas like border infrastructure, disaster response, and health security.

Military-to-Military Confidence Building: Delhi must revive its defense diplomacy with Dhaka through joint exercises, officer exchanges, and low-key security dialogues to reduce mistrust and prevent a total strategic drift.

Avoid Reactionary Provocation: Any overt attempt to sabotage Bangladesh’s new alliances—especially through RAW or propaganda—could deepen the rupture. Delhi should pursue soft containment, maintaining influence in other areas (e.g., BIMSTEC, BBIN) while recalibrating its approach to fit the emerging multipolar reality.

c. For External Powers: Realignments in a New Asian Order

The proposed pact may become a symbol of shifting global alliances, particularly reflecting the emerging divide between Western security blocs (e.g., QUAD, NATO) and Eurasian or Islamic-oriented alliances. For the broader international community, the implications are significant:

United States and Western Bloc: A military bloc drawing Bangladesh into a China-oriented orbit may erode Western influence in South Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The U.S. should rethink its Indo-Pacific policy to include Bangladesh more seriously, offering defense education programs, digital partnerships, and climate security cooperation to remain relevant. The West must strike a balance between advocating democratic reforms in Bangladesh and not alienating a sovereign government exploring new alliances.

China: For China, this pact offers forward military presence in South Asia and a deeper foothold near India’s eastern flank. China will likely promote dual-use infrastructure (e.g., ports, logistics hubs) under this pact—blending BRI with security cooperation. However, Beijing must tread carefully to avoid perceptions of neocolonialism that could stoke local backlashes.

Turkey: Turkey’s growing defense diplomacy in Bangladesh allows Ankara to position itself as a protector of Muslim-majority nations, particularly amid tensions with the West. Turkey will likely increase funding for religious and cultural institutions in Bangladesh, pairing hard military cooperation with Islamic soft power projection.

Pakistan: The pact gives Pakistan an opportunity to rehabilitate ties with Dhaka and collaborate on military-industrial development. A deeper partnership with Bangladesh offers Pakistan geopolitical leverage against India, especially in case of border crises or regional instability.

Conclusion: A New Security Architecture Emerging

The formation of a Bangladesh–Pakistan–Turkey–China military cooperation pact could mark the most significant shift in South Asia’s strategic order since the Cold War. For Dhaka, it offers an opportunity to reassert sovereignty, diversify alliances, and escape historical dependence. For India and the West, it signals a need to engage smarter, not harder—or risk becoming irrelevant in a multipolar Asia.

What lies ahead is not merely a treaty among armies, but the forging of a new geopolitical axis—one that could either stabilize the region through balance or ignite further competition and rivalry.

This developing Bangladesh–Pakistan–Turkey–China defense framework holds the potential to recast South Asia’s security architecture. For Dhaka, it offers autonomy and strategic leverage—but also carries risks of alienation from India and the West. For India, it represents a strategic inflection point. The next 12–18 months will be critical in determining whether this pact becomes a military reality or remains a geopolitical bluff.