Rokan's Journal

In the annals of South Asian geopolitics, the relationship between Bangladesh and India has often been marked by a complex interplay of cooperation and tension. While geographic proximity and shared history have bound the two nations together, recent developments have cast a shadow over this bond. The fall of the autocratic regime of Sheikh Hasina and the subsequent formation of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus was a pivotal moment for Bangladesh. It promised a new era of governance, transparency, and hope for millions of Bangladeshis who had long suffered under the previous regime’s iron grip. However, this transition has been marred by a series of destabilizing incidents allegedly orchestrated by Indian intelligence agency RAW, in collusion with Awami League loyalists, signaling a deepening rift between the two nations.

The recent political shifts in Bangladesh have exposed the country to a wave of challenges, both internally and in its relations with neighboring India. The fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, which had maintained a close alliance with India, has created a complex and, at times, destabilizing power vacuum. Amid this upheaval, credible reports have pointed to the active involvement of India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), India’s foreign intelligence agency, in attempting to shape the political landscape in Bangladesh in ways that favor Indian interests. This involvement has taken on alarming forms, including interference in Bangladesh’s security, judiciary, and social stability, creating a web of tensions that strain bilateral relations and threaten Bangladesh’s sovereignty.

Internal Destabilization: RAW’s Alleged Role

Since the shift in power, there has been a marked increase in criminal and destabilizing activities within Bangladesh. One troubling trend is the rise in organized crime, particularly nighttime robberies, which have heightened insecurity and fear among citizens. These acts of lawlessness appear to be more than mere criminal opportunism; many view them as strategically engineered efforts by RAW and its network of local collaborators. These collaborators reportedly include former Awami League loyalists who retain influential positions within Bangladesh’s administrative and civil structures, potentially allowing them to further RAW’s interests from within.

The attempted subversion of the Bangladesh Army poses an even graver threat. Bangladesh’s military, as the country’s primary defense institution, plays a critical role in ensuring both stability and sovereignty. Allegations of RAW attempting to incite factions within the military to stage a coup against the interim government underscore the severity of the threat. Such actions, if verified, represent a serious violation of Bangladesh’s sovereignty and a direct challenge to its democratic transition. This intervention in the military could have devastating effects on Bangladesh’s internal stability, as the army has historically been a stabilizing force in times of national crisis.

The judiciary has also become a target in this web of interference. Reports of a “judicial coup” highlight efforts to compromise the independence of the judiciary, turning it from a pillar of impartial governance into a potential tool of political manipulation. In a democratic society, an independent judiciary is crucial for upholding the rule of law and protecting citizens’ rights. By attempting to influence judicial outcomes, RAW and its collaborators could erode public trust in legal institutions, undermining the interim government’s ability to enforce justice and maintain order.

Further destabilization efforts appear to be directed toward igniting protest movements. Although these demonstrations often present as legitimate expressions of popular discontent, their timing and coordination suggest external orchestration. Recent disturbances within the ranks of Bangladesh’s police force and the Ansar (a paramilitary auxiliary) are particularly worrisome, as they suggest a targeted effort to weaken Bangladesh’s internal security structure. Without a reliable security apparatus, the interim government faces an uphill battle in restoring and maintaining national stability.

Exploiting Communal Tensions: A Tactic of Division

Adding to the list of destabilizing tactics, RAW’s involvement has allegedly extended to stoking communal tensions within Bangladesh. By exploiting sensitive minority issues, these operatives seem intent on amplifying divisions among different religious and ethnic groups. Communal tensions have long been a challenge in South Asia, with occasional outbursts of violence harming social harmony and economic productivity. Reports indicate that RAW’s strategy includes inciting incidents that pit communities against one another, thereby diverting attention from the government’s efforts to restore order and create an image of a country on the brink of chaos. Such exploitation of communal issues is a potent tool in any destabilization campaign, as it diverts government resources toward conflict management and weakens the social fabric.

Environmental Warfare: The Alleged “Artificial Flood”

Beyond internal interference, recent environmental events have intensified tensions between Bangladesh and India. Bangladesh is currently grappling with severe floods, believed by many to be exacerbated deliberately by the unannounced release of water from upstream Indian dams. This has triggered what some term “hydrological warfare,” as the unexpected flooding has devastated agricultural lands, displaced thousands, and created a severe humanitarian crisis.

Bangladesh’s reliance on rivers that originate in India has historically made water-sharing a critical issue in bilateral relations. The Teesta River water-sharing dispute is one prominent example of this contention, as Bangladesh has long requested a fair allocation to support its agriculture and water needs. The abrupt release of water from upstream dams during monsoon season, however, has left Bangladeshi communities struggling to cope with extreme flooding. The timing of these unannounced dam releases has led many to view it as a calculated maneuver by India, potentially aimed at overwhelming Bangladesh’s infrastructure and economy at a moment of political vulnerability.

The social and economic repercussions of this alleged hydrological intervention are immense. The agricultural sector, which supports a large portion of Bangladesh’s population, has suffered devastating losses as floodwaters have washed away crops and rendered farmland unusable. The displacement of thousands of people has compounded the crisis, creating logistical and humanitarian challenges for a government already navigating political turmoil. For Bangladesh, the artificial flooding represents not only a significant economic setback but also a psychological blow, as many citizens feel their country’s security and sovereignty are under threat from a much larger and more powerful neighbor.

The Path Forward: Diplomacy and Sovereignty

Addressing the dual threat of internal destabilization and environmental challenges will require a multifaceted approach. Bangladesh’s interim government, supported by the international community, must reinforce its commitment to upholding sovereignty and stability. The first step is to strengthen its internal security and intelligence apparatus to detect and counter any covert attempts to incite unrest. At the same time, the government must build a robust judicial framework capable of addressing any interference that compromises the independence of national institutions.

On the environmental front, Bangladesh may need to pursue diplomatic solutions more assertively to hold India accountable for water-sharing practices that respect Bangladesh’s needs. Agreements governing river management and flood prevention could serve as a foundation for mitigating future incidents. Bangladesh might also consider working with regional organizations and international bodies to monitor cross-border water flows, thereby creating a system of accountability that reduces the risk of environmental manipulation.

In the long term, building a more resilient Bangladesh—one that can resist both internal and external destabilization—will require consistent diplomacy, national unity, and a commitment to sovereignty. India, too, could benefit from revisiting its approach toward Bangladesh, recognizing that interference only serves to breed resentment and long-term instability. For both nations, fostering a relationship based on mutual respect and cooperative development, rather than divisive tactics, remains the most viable path to sustained peace and progress in South Asia.

Growing Anti-Indian Sentiment

Anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh has deepened significantly in recent years, driven by India’s prolonged support of Sheikh Hasina’s increasingly authoritarian regime and reports of its interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. This sentiment is no longer confined to a few disillusioned voices; it has spread widely across Bangladeshi society, manifesting in public protests, academic critiques, and even a shift in the political rhetoric of opposition parties. For many Bangladeshis, India’s support of Hasina is seen as tacit approval of human rights abuses, election manipulation, and the erosion of democratic values—values for which the people of Bangladesh have fought tirelessly over the decades.

Historical Context: The Roots of Distrust

While India played a pivotal role in supporting Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971, the relationship has been complicated by periods of tension and perceived interference. During the Liberation War, India provided essential military, diplomatic, and humanitarian support, which cemented strong ties between the two countries. Yet, as Bangladesh emerged from the devastation of war and began to navigate its newfound independence, friction began to surface. Reports of exploitation by some Indian troops who stayed on after the war, along with concerns that India saw itself as a benefactor rather than a partner, sowed seeds of skepticism among Bangladeshis.

In the early years of independence, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s one of the founding leader, attempted to strike a balanced approach in foreign relations, cultivating ties with India while emphasizing Bangladesh’s sovereignty. However, his eventual slide into autocratic governance and a centralized one-party system in the form of the BAKSAL framework strained his popularity at home and complicated relations with India. The perception that India had undue influence over his policies created a sense of unease among many Bangladeshis, who were beginning to view India as a dominant force in the region rather than a supportive ally.

Following the assassination of Sheikh Mujib in 1975, the relationship saw highs and lows, with successive Bangladeshi governments seeking varying degrees of distance from India to assert their independence on the world stage. For instance, leaders from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) historically positioned themselves as advocates of greater sovereignty, often questioning India’s influence. This approach resonated with a populace that felt their nation’s sovereignty was frequently compromised by a more powerful neighbor.

India’s Influence under the Hasina Regime

The rise of Sheikh Hasina to power in 2009 marked the beginning of a new phase in Bangladesh-India relations. Hasina, who shared historical and personal ties with India due to the country’s support for her father during the independence struggle, aligned closely with New Delhi. This alliance led to significant collaboration in trade, security, and strategic affairs. Under her rule, Bangladesh granted India access to strategic transit routes, granted Indian businesses easier market entry, and signed various defense agreements that allowed for closer cooperation between the two militaries.

Yet, this relationship, described by some as overly dependent, came at a cost. The political opposition, including leaders from the BNP, frequently accused Hasina’s government of compromising national sovereignty and prioritizing Indian interests over the needs and concerns of the Bangladeshi people. The alleged involvement of India’s intelligence agency, RAW, in Bangladeshi politics, including allegations of influencing elections and suppressing dissent, further stoked anger among citizens who felt that their country’s democratic processes were being undermined.

As the Hasina government grew increasingly authoritarian, cracking down on opposition and civil rights, India’s continued support became a source of widespread resentment. The lack of a critical stance from India, despite international outcry over human rights abuses, fueled the perception that India was complicit in the erosion of democracy. The Bangladeshi public, already sensitive to external influences, began to view India as enabling Hasina’s grip on power at the expense of the people’s rights and aspirations for genuine democratic governance.

The Evolving Anti-Indian Sentiment

The culmination of these factors has led to an intense wave of anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh, exacerbated by recent reports of RAW’s involvement in undermining the interim government’s stability. Protests, editorials, and online commentary in Bangladesh increasingly criticize India not only for supporting Hasina but for allegedly trying to destabilize the nation to retain influence. Bangladeshis from diverse backgrounds, including students, civil society activists, and members of the opposition, have voiced their dissatisfaction, calling for a reassessment of Bangladesh’s foreign policy toward India.

For Bangladesh, the current situation is particularly painful given its history of resistance against external control. Bangladesh’s independence struggle was not only a fight against oppression but also a powerful assertion of the right to self-determination. The idea that India, a country that once stood by Bangladesh’s side in this struggle, is now seen as a potential oppressor is deeply troubling for many citizens. The anti-Indian sentiment reflects not just opposition to India’s recent policies but also a broader desire to maintain and protect Bangladesh’s hard-won sovereignty.

The Broader Implications for Regional Relations

Anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh also has significant implications for regional geopolitics. As Bangladesh’s public grows increasingly wary of India’s intentions, there is a risk that future governments could pivot toward other regional powers, such as China, to balance India’s influence. China has already made significant inroads in Bangladesh’s infrastructure and energy sectors, offering loans and investments as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. This growing Chinese presence is a direct challenge to India’s traditional sphere of influence in South Asia, and the animosity toward India could accelerate Bangladesh’s alignment with Beijing.

Additionally, the rise in anti-Indian sentiment may influence how other South Asian countries perceive India. Smaller nations like Nepal and Sri Lanka, which have also experienced India’s influence in various ways, may view Bangladesh’s stance as an affirmation of their own struggles. For India, the anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh should serve as a signal to re-evaluate its foreign policy approach, not only with Bangladesh but with all of its smaller neighbors. A recalibration toward a relationship based on respect for sovereignty and genuine partnership could help repair its image in Bangladesh and prevent similar sentiments from arising elsewhere.

Moving Forward: A Call for Mutual Respect and Partnership

To counter the rising tide of anti-Indian sentiment, India must reassess its relationship with Bangladesh through a lens of partnership rather than dominance. By respecting Bangladesh’s internal political dynamics and refraining from actions perceived as interference, India can help mend its damaged image. This would involve supporting democratic processes, even if they lead to leadership changes, and being responsive to the concerns of the Bangladeshi people regarding sovereignty and national pride.

India and Bangladesh share a deep history, economic interests, and cultural ties that should be the foundation of their relationship. A relationship grounded in mutual respect and shared goals could not only benefit the two nations but also enhance stability and cooperation throughout South Asia. The challenge lies in rebuilding trust, which will require both countries to listen to each other’s aspirations, address grievances openly, and work together toward a future where their people view each other as true friends and partners, rather than as dominant and subjugated.

By acknowledging past mistakes, investing in respectful dialogue, and engaging with Bangladesh on equal footing, India has the opportunity to transform a strained relationship into a resilient alliance. This approach would not only address the immediate concerns of anti-Indian sentiment but also lay the groundwork for sustainable, respectful, and mutually beneficial relations for years to come.

A Call for Strategic Realignment

In the wake of recent political turbulence and external interference, Bangladesh finds itself at a critical juncture in its foreign policy. The longstanding relationship with India, once built on mutual cooperation and shared history, has now become a source of growing distrust and tension. Given the ongoing destabilizing activities and the erosion of Bangladesh’s sovereignty, a strategic realignment of foreign policy is both necessary and urgent. This shift would allow Bangladesh to reclaim its autonomy and place its interests at the forefront of its diplomatic and economic decisions.

Severing Diplomatic Ties with India

One of the first and most important steps in this process would be to sever or severely limit diplomatic ties with India. While such a move is undoubtedly a drastic one, it is essential for Bangladesh to make a strong statement that it will not tolerate foreign interference, especially from its much larger neighbor. This would send a clear message that Bangladesh is committed to protecting its sovereignty and independence, no longer willing to accept any external influence that seeks to undermine its internal affairs or political stability.

Historically, India has often been seen as the dominant regional power in South Asia, leveraging its size, economic power, and strategic importance to exert influence over its neighbors. For Bangladesh, the years of perceived meddling by India in its political processes, especially the backing of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian rule, have created a sense of dependency and resentment. By cutting diplomatic ties, Bangladesh would reclaim its voice in regional politics, signaling to both India and the broader international community that it is a sovereign state, capable of making decisions based on its own interests.

Reducing Economic and Strategic Dependency on India

One of the most significant aspects of Bangladesh’s reliance on India has been its economic and strategic dependencies. India has long been a major trading partner and the primary route for land transit for Bangladesh’s imports and exports. However, reducing this dependence on India is vital for Bangladesh to avoid being locked into an unequal relationship where its economic policies are dictated by New Delhi’s interests.

To achieve this, Bangladesh must actively diversify its trade relationships, seeking partnerships with other regional and global powers. A key area of focus should be strengthening economic ties with China, which has become an increasingly dominant player in the South Asian region. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has provided many countries, including Bangladesh, with opportunities for significant infrastructure investment. By tapping into China’s economic resources and exploring the potential for greater trade and investment, Bangladesh can reduce its reliance on India for its economic needs.

Additionally, Bangladesh should look to enhance its relationships with Southeast Asian nations, which offer both economic opportunities and strategic advantages. Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam could become important partners for Bangladesh in sectors such as trade, tourism, and technology. These nations share common interests in fostering regional stability and promoting economic growth, and could provide Bangladesh with viable alternatives to Indian trade routes and investments.

Strengthening Ties with Pakistan and Regional Powers

In addition to China and Southeast Asia, Bangladesh must also re-evaluate its relationship with Pakistan. Though the historical tensions between Bangladesh and Pakistan, especially stemming from the 1971 Liberation War, are well-documented, there is a growing recognition that both countries share common strategic interests in the region. By improving relations with Pakistan, Bangladesh could open new avenues for trade, security cooperation, and regional stability.

Pakistan, like Bangladesh, has often found itself in opposition to Indian dominance in South Asia. A strengthened Bangladesh-Pakistan relationship would not only offer economic benefits but also provide a political counterbalance to India. In turn, Pakistan could become an advocate for Bangladesh on the international stage, ensuring that its sovereignty is respected by regional powers.

In addition to Pakistan, Bangladesh should continue to deepen its diplomatic and economic ties with other regional powers, such as Iran, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. By diversifying its alliances, Bangladesh can reduce its vulnerability to any single country or bloc and strengthen its strategic autonomy.

Building New Alliances

Beyond the traditional regional powers, Bangladesh must also look to strengthen its ties with global powers that respect its sovereignty and are willing to support its development on mutually beneficial terms. This includes Western nations, as well as emerging global players such as Russia, Japan, and Turkey. By diversifying its global alliances, Bangladesh can ensure that it is not isolated on the international stage and that it can garner support from a range of political and economic sources.

One potential avenue is to seek greater cooperation with the European Union, which has shown increasing interest in South Asia’s growing markets. As Bangladesh continues to develop its textile and garment industries, the EU could be an important partner for both trade and investment. Additionally, fostering ties with countries like Japan, which has been a key partner in development and infrastructure projects, can provide Bangladesh with the technological and financial support it needs for long-term growth.

Furthermore, Bangladesh should explore partnerships with non-traditional powers such as Turkey and Russia, which have sought to increase their influence in Asia. Russia, with its military and energy capabilities, could be an important security partner for Bangladesh, while Turkey’s growing influence in the Middle East and Asia could provide Bangladesh with access to new diplomatic and trade opportunities.

Ensuring a Balanced Foreign Policy

The overarching goal of Bangladesh’s strategic realignment should be to build a foreign policy that is both balanced and based on the principles of sovereignty, equality, and mutual respect. While India will always remain a key neighbor and a part of Bangladesh’s history, the future should see both countries engage as equals—no longer defined by India’s perceived dominance. This requires Bangladesh to be proactive in forging alliances, diversifying its economic base, and protecting its interests on the global stage.

In doing so, Bangladesh will not only strengthen its position as an independent and influential player in South Asia but also set a precedent for smaller nations in the region to assert their sovereignty in the face of external pressures. By breaking free from the shadow of Indian dominance, Bangladesh can chart a course that reflects its own aspirations for growth, stability, and prosperity.

Conclusion: Charting a Sovereign Path Forward

Bangladesh stands at a crossroads in its history. The challenges it faces are immense, but they are not insurmountable. By taking decisive action to protect its sovereignty and reduce its dependency on India, Bangladesh can chart a path toward a future where it is free from external interference and able to pursue its national interests without compromise.

The time has come for Bangladesh to assert its independence and build a future based on mutual respect, cooperation, and the unwavering principle of national sovereignty. In doing so, it will not only honor the sacrifices of those who fought for its independence but also secure a prosperous and peaceful future for generations to come.