Rokan's Journal

HRM Rokan Uddin

The Arakan region (today’s Rakhine State of Myanmar) has been deeply connected with Bengal for centuries. There were strong bonds of trade, culture, and migration between the coastal belts of Chittagong and Arakan. During the medieval period, the Sultans of Bengal maintained close ties with the Arakanese kingdom. Sufi saints, traders, and settlers culturally linked the two regions. However, during colonial rule, artificial borders separated Arakan, and the Rohingya Muslims living there became vulnerable.

Since Myanmar’s independence, Rakhine has remained restless. Initially, Rohingya insurgencies broke out, followed later by separatist movements of the ethnic Rakhine population. In this unstable environment, the Arakan Army (AA) was born in 2009. At first it was a small guerrilla outfit, but gradually, with the help of Kachin insurgents in northern Myanmar, it grew into a powerful armed organization. After the 2021 military coup, Myanmar’s central junta weakened, and the Arakan Army quickly expanded. By 2023–24, it had captured most of Rakhine, destroyed Myanmar army outposts, and established parallel governance. Many assumed that after such victory, the AA would focus on development and seek good relations with neighboring Bangladesh. But reality proved otherwise. The Arakan Army has been engaged in numerous anti-Bangladesh activities.

Bangladesh’s coastal fishermen, while engaged in their daily fishing, have repeatedly been captured by the AA. In recent months, more than 200 fishermen have been abducted. This is not only a humanitarian crisis but also a severe economic blow. Fishermen are a vital part of the country’s food security and coastal economy. Their abduction devastates families and harms rural livelihoods. Moreover, the ransom money demanded by the AA becomes a source of financing for future terrorist operations. In essence, this is nothing less than organized terrorism against Bangladeshi citizens.

The Arakan Army has not limited itself to attacking civilians; it has also opened fire directly on Bangladesh’s border guards (BGB). This is clearly a provocation against a sovereign state. Firing upon border guards is a challenge to Bangladesh’s defense system itself. Through such acts, the AA wants to test how patient Bangladesh is and how prepared it is to respond. If such provocations continue, they could escalate into full-fledged conflict, endangering not just the border but the entire region’s stability.

The Rohingya community has long been an unbearable humanitarian burden on Bangladesh. For nearly a decade, more than one million Rohingya refugees have taken shelter in Cox’s Bazar. Now the Arakan Army is exploiting this crisis—forcing Rohingyas across the border into Bangladesh in exchange for money. In other words, they are turning a humanitarian catastrophe into a weaponized business model. This adds further demographic pressure, social instability, and security risks for Bangladesh. It is, in effect, a form of human trafficking and strategic coercion.

Possible Role of India

The possible role of India cannot be ignored. Suspicions about India’s shadow behind the Arakan Army are not baseless. In South Asian geopolitics, India has always sought to keep Bangladesh under its influence while countering China’s growing sway in Myanmar. Rakhine and Arakan are of immense importance to India, as this is where its Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Project and access routes to its northeast are located. For India, using groups like the Arakan Army inside Myanmar is a logical strategic choice.

Historically, India has maintained direct or indirect links with insurgent groups in its northeast, sometimes even using them as tools. Mizos, Nagas, and Kukis provide examples of such cases. With Myanmar’s junta leaning closer to China, India may see the Arakan Army as a useful proxy. Through the AA, India achieves two objectives—keeping Bangladesh unstable on its southern border and counterbalancing Chinese influence in Myanmar. By indirectly supporting the AA, India ensures that Bangladesh faces kidnappings of fishermen, cross-border shootings, and further Rohingya influxes. This deepens Bangladesh’s security and humanitarian crisis. At the same time, it keeps Bangladesh distracted and under pressure, while giving India political leverage and a strategic advantage against China.

For Bangladesh, this reality is a clear warning. India often acts not openly but through covert and proxy strategies. Patronizing a powerful insurgent group like the Arakan Army to destabilize Bangladesh may be a convenient path for New Delhi. Therefore, Bangladesh must take this factor into serious consideration in its strategy. Dhaka must diplomatically highlight India’s possible role, strengthen strategic ties with China, maintain close communication with Myanmar’s central government, and—most importantly—demonstrate military strength to make it clear that no power, state or proxy, will ever be allowed to play games with Bangladesh’s sovereignty.

Bangladesh’s Course of Action

Bangladesh must first issue a diplomatic warning to the Arakan Army (AA). The incidents of border violations must be formally documented, and a clear message delivered that such actions will not be tolerated. At the same time, the international community must be alerted. China is a dominant power in this region, with deep economic and political interests in Arakan. ASEAN also plays an important role in Myanmar’s political crisis. If Bangladesh raises the issue strongly in international forums, the Arakan Army will be diplomatically isolated and pressure on them will increase. This will not only strengthen Bangladesh’s position but also draw sympathy from the international community.

To deter the Arakan Army’s reckless activities, joint deployment of military and paramilitary forces along the border must be enhanced. Surveillance should not be limited to land borders but extended to rivers and coastal areas as well. Coordinated operations among the BGB, Army, Navy, and Coast Guard can effectively prevent abductions, boat seizures, and border shootings. Modern technologies such as drones, radar, and coastal patrol vessels should be deployed. This will ensure that not only the Arakan Army but also any destabilizing force will think ten times before attempting to violate Bangladesh’s borders in the future.

If diplomatic warnings are ignored, Bangladesh must swiftly resort to limited military action. This would include special commando operations to rescue abducted fishermen and the destruction of Arakan Army camps near the border. Such operations would be targeted—inflicting damage on the enemy directly, without dragging the country into a prolonged war. This would both ensure the safety of Bangladesh’s citizens and send a clear message that any border violation will meet with immediate response.

If the Arakan Army continues its provocations even after limited measures, Bangladesh must consider launching a large-scale strategic offensive. This could involve entering the Arakan region to establish a security buffer zone, preventing future incursions. The Bangladesh Armed Forces have demonstrated exceptional success since 1971 and in numerous UN missions. With their capability, discipline, and experience, such an operation would not be difficult. On the contrary, it would set a firm precedent of deterrence for the future.

The possible influence of India behind the Arakan Army cannot be ignored. India may use such groups to protect its strategic interests in the region. Therefore, Bangladesh must strengthen its ties with both China and Myanmar’s central government. China has major commercial corridor and port projects in Arakan, and it has no interest in seeing instability threaten its investments. Likewise, Myanmar’s central government does not want the Arakan Army to become too powerful. If Bangladesh aligns with both, the AA will become isolated in the international arena, limiting India’s ability to use it as a tool.

The Call to Defend Sovereignty

History teaches us that weakness invites aggression. In 1971, Bangladesh snatched its independence through the power of arms because both the nation and the armed forces were resolute. Today, the provocations of the Arakan Army present us with a new challenge. Bangladesh must therefore act firmly. Warnings are essential, but if they are ignored, force must be applied. If necessary, Bangladesh must enter Arakan territory and strike decisively, teaching a lesson so that no group or state ever dares to threaten our sovereignty again. In the chessboard of Asian geopolitics, hesitation means loss. Timely and firm action is the only way to secure the southern frontier and uphold the dignity of independent Bangladesh.

• Retired Brigadier General, Security Analyst and Author