Rokan's Journal

HRM Rokon Uddin

The fall of Sheikh Hasina’s 16-year regime on 5 August 2024 marked one of the most dramatic political upheavals in Bangladesh’s history since independence. The ensuing appointment of Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus as Chief Adviser of an interim administration created a fragile but hopeful opening. A year on, Bangladesh stands at a decisive crossroads. The choices made now will determine whether the country transitions into a stable, inclusive democracy—or slides back into authoritarianism cloaked in electoral legitimacy.

Challenges on the Road to Stability

1. Security-Sector Impunity & Public Safety: The violent uprising of 2024 left hundreds of dead, exposing the brutal legacy of unchecked security institutions. Although overt state repression has declined, arbitrary detentions, weak accountability mechanisms, and communal violence remain pressing. Durable reform of the police, RAB, and intelligence agencies is unfinished. Unless reoriented toward accountability and professionalism, these organs could once again be misused for political control.

2. Electoral Roadmap Uncertainty: The interim government has floated timelines stretching from late-2025 to early-2026 for general elections. Yet fundamental questions remain unresolved: Will there be a neutral caretaker framework? Can the Election Commission act independently? Will all parties be allowed to participate freely? Will the differences of opinion among the main political parties be resolved? Failure to resolve these disputes risks boycotts, unrest, or a repeat of flawed elections.

3. Polarization & Party Fragmentation: Bangladesh’s two-party rivalry has deepened. The BNP demands earlier polls, while student leaders and Islamists are forming new vehicles such as the National Citizen Party. This fragmentation risks instability and could hinder coalition-building, raising the specter of fragile or short-lived governments.

4. Rule-of-Law & Freedom of Speech: The much-criticized 2023 Cyber Security Act (CSA) remains partly intact despite government pledges of reform. Arrests and harassment for digital expressions continue in some cases. Without robust legal safeguards, civic trust in democracy cannot take root.

5. Communal Tensions and Extremism:

In the post-revolution period, although tensions have persisted among minority communities, particularly Hindus, apart from a few politically motivated attacks no major incidents have occurred. However, the activities of extremist groups, both online and offline, pose a serious threat to national unity and Bangladesh’s international image. Meanwhile, India is actively crafting narratives around Islamic fundamentalism and extremism to once again create instability in Bangladesh.

6. Economic Fragility: The economy remains under strain. High inflation, a banking system saddled with bad loans, declining investment, and reliance on IMF/ADB/WB programs create structural vulnerabilities. Without credible anti-corruption measures, external aid alone will not deliver stability.

7. Civil–Military Balance: The army brokered the transition in August 2024. While the military has so far refrained from overt interference, maintaining civilian supremacy over security institutions during elections and reforms will be a delicate but decisive factor.

Opportunities for Renewal

1. Youth and Civic Mobilization: The 2024 student-led uprising demonstrated the power of youth as a political force. Their inclusion in reform commissions offers the potential to inject new leadership and pluralistic values into policymaking—if they can avoid co-option by partisan politics.

2. Institutional Reform Window: The interim government has launched 11 reform commissions—from judiciary to police, anti-corruption, and constitutional review—backed by the July Declaration. If translated into binding law, this could institutionalize checks and balances unseen in Bangladesh’s history.

3. Digital Rights Reset: Efforts to roll back the most draconian provisions of the CSA and moves to declare internet access a civil right can widen civic space. However, true progress requires not just legislative change but impartial enforcement.

4. Accountability & Asset Recovery: Investigations into corruption, banking audits, and cross-border asset recovery efforts can finance reforms while sending a strong message that impunity will no longer be tolerated. Transparency and fairness will be crucial.

5. External Anchors for Reform: Engagement with the IMF, ADB, and World Bank can stabilize the macroeconomy while nudging governance reforms. These partnerships create breathing space for political reforms if managed wisely.

Key Issues to Watch in the Next 6–12 Months

1. Clear Election Date and Framework: Bangladesh’s political stability now largely depends on the election. It must be clarified whether the election will be held in late 2025 or early 2026—and this must be announced in a way that is transparent and widely acceptable. To build trust among citizens and political parties, the framework of the election, whether under a neutral caretaker government or the interim administration—must be decided quickly. Delay or ambiguity will only fuel distrust and fresh instability.

2. Accountability in the Security Sector: The 2024 uprising and subsequent crackdowns left many people dead, and countless ordinary citizens were arrested or abused. To restore public trust, there must be independent investigations and justice for those responsible. In addition, permanent independent oversight mechanisms must be established over the police, RAB, and other security forces to ensure they are never again misused for political purposes. Without this, mistrust of the security sector will persist.

3. Rule of Law and Freedom of Expression: The lifeblood of democracy is freedom of expression. Under the 2023 Cyber Security Act, many citizens, journalists, and activists faced harassment. Although the interim government has pledged reform, many cases are still pending. Swift enactment of a new law that guarantees freedom of speech, along with the withdrawal of old fabricated cases, is essential. This would send a strong signal that Bangladesh is truly moving toward a new democratic path.

4. Economic Reform; Democracy cannot survive without economic stability. Bangladesh’s banking sector is currently weighed down by non-performing loans and weak financial discipline. In the coming months, the following steps are critical: Publishing transparent audit reports of banks, Taking firm action against influential loan defaulters and Restoring investor confidence. If these measures are implemented, people’s economic hardship will be reduced, and the foundation of political stability will be strengthened.

5. Communal Harmony: Bangladesh’s spirit of independence is rooted in communal harmony. Yet recent violence against minorities, especially Hindus, is deeply alarming. The government’s top responsibility in the coming months will be to ensure the security of minority communities and to deliver exemplary punishment to perpetrators. This will not only strengthen domestic harmony but also improve Bangladesh’s international image.

 In summary, unless there is tangible progress in these five areas within the next 6–12 months, Bangladesh’s democratic transition will remain in question. However, if the government proceeds with sincerity and transparency, the sacrifices of 2024 will not be in vain, and Bangladesh can truly move toward becoming a stable democracy.

The Likely Political Trajectory

Bangladesh is poised for a contested democratic transition. The interim government under Dr. Yunus has created space for reform, but political polarization and economic fragility threaten progress. If reform commissions deliver real change, if elections are free and inclusive, and if civil-military relations remain balanced, Bangladesh could finally begin building a durable democratic order. But if reforms stall, if elections are delayed or manipulated, or if communal violence intensifies, the country risks sliding back into a cycle of repression, unrest, and authoritarian relapses. The coming year will thus be decisive—not only for Bangladesh’s democracy, but also for its regional standing and the confidence of its own citizens that the sacrifices of 2024 were not in vain.